**Current forecasts from European meteorological models indicate Madrid will experience overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, driving minimum temperatures into the low-to-mid 20s °C on September 5, 2026.** This aligns with the market's near-certain 99.8% implied probability for a daily low of 24°C or below, reflecting trader consensus on the AEMET and ECMWF guidance showing highs near 34–36°C followed by a drop to around 24–27°C overnight. Historical September climatology (average low ~17°C) and recent model runs support this cooling trajectory, with dew points and wind patterns favoring further decline after sunset. A realistic challenge would require sustained cloud cover, stronger southerly flow, or an unexpected warm-air advection that prevents the surface from radiating heat effectively, potentially holding the minimum above 25°C. Updated short-range model runs and official station observations will refine this assessment before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 5?
24°C or below 99.8%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$805 Vol.
$805 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
24°C or below
100%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
24°C or below 99.8%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$805 Vol.
$805 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
24°C or below
$222 Vol.
100%
25°C
$359 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$64 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from European meteorological models indicate Madrid will experience overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, driving minimum temperatures into the low-to-mid 20s °C on September 5, 2026.** This aligns with the market's near-certain 99.8% implied probability for a daily low of 24°C or below, reflecting trader consensus on the AEMET and ECMWF guidance showing highs near 34–36°C followed by a drop to around 24–27°C overnight. Historical September climatology (average low ~17°C) and recent model runs support this cooling trajectory, with dew points and wind patterns favoring further decline after sunset. A realistic challenge would require sustained cloud cover, stronger southerly flow, or an unexpected warm-air advection that prevents the surface from radiating heat effectively, potentially holding the minimum above 25°C. Updated short-range model runs and official station observations will refine this assessment before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$805End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from European meteorological models indicate Madrid will experience overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, driving minimum temperatures into the low-to-mid 20s °C on September 5, 2026.** This aligns with the market's near-certain 99.8% implied probability for a daily low of 24°C or below, reflecting trader consensus on the AEMET and ECMWF guidance showing highs near 34–36°C followed by a drop to around 24–27°C overnight. Historical September climatology (average low ~17°C) and recent model runs support this cooling trajectory, with dew points and wind patterns favoring further decline after sunset. A realistic challenge would require sustained cloud cover, stronger southerly flow, or an unexpected warm-air advection that prevents the surface from radiating heat effectively, potentially holding the minimum above 25°C. Updated short-range model runs and official station observations will refine this assessment before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$805End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from European meteorological models indicate Madrid will experience overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, driving minimum temperatures into the low-to-mid 20s °C on September 5, 2026.** This aligns with the market's near-certain 99.8% implied probability for a daily low of 24°C or below, reflecting trader consensus on the AEMET and ECMWF guidance showing highs near 34–36°C followed by a drop to around 24–27°C overnight. Historical September climatology (average low ~17°C) and recent model runs support this cooling trajectory, with dew points and wind patterns favoring further decline after sunset. A realistic challenge would require sustained cloud cover, stronger southerly flow, or an unexpected warm-air advection that prevents the surface from radiating heat effectively, potentially holding the minimum above 25°C. Updated short-range model runs and official station observations will refine this assessment before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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