**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) rains and associated cloud cover are the main factors capping Manila's expected daytime maximum on September 6.** PAGASA forecasts and multiple meteorological models show highs near 28–29°C under scattered to heavy thunderstorms, with high humidity and reduced solar insolation limiting warming. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 30°C (41.5%) and 29°C (26.5%), which sit close to the seasonal September average high of roughly 30–31°C but adjusted downward for active monsoon conditions. Recent heavy rainfall warnings and a monitored tropical depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility have reinforced trader expectations for suppressed temperatures rather than clear-sky peaks near 32°C or higher. Updated model runs and official 24-hour outlooks will be the next key inputs before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 6?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 6?
30°C 42%
29°C 26%
31°C 20%
28°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
4%
28°C
9%
29°C
26%
30°C
42%
31°C
20%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
2%
30°C 42%
29°C 26%
31°C 20%
28°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
23°C or below
$510 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$555 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$219 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$268 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$651 Vol.
4%
28°C
$435 Vol.
9%
29°C
$780 Vol.
26%
30°C
$887 Vol.
42%
31°C
$854 Vol.
20%
32°C
$584 Vol.
4%
33°C or higher
$55 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) rains and associated cloud cover are the main factors capping Manila's expected daytime maximum on September 6.** PAGASA forecasts and multiple meteorological models show highs near 28–29°C under scattered to heavy thunderstorms, with high humidity and reduced solar insolation limiting warming. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 30°C (41.5%) and 29°C (26.5%), which sit close to the seasonal September average high of roughly 30–31°C but adjusted downward for active monsoon conditions. Recent heavy rainfall warnings and a monitored tropical depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility have reinforced trader expectations for suppressed temperatures rather than clear-sky peaks near 32°C or higher. Updated model runs and official 24-hour outlooks will be the next key inputs before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$5,720End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) rains and associated cloud cover are the main factors capping Manila's expected daytime maximum on September 6.** PAGASA forecasts and multiple meteorological models show highs near 28–29°C under scattered to heavy thunderstorms, with high humidity and reduced solar insolation limiting warming. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 30°C (41.5%) and 29°C (26.5%), which sit close to the seasonal September average high of roughly 30–31°C but adjusted downward for active monsoon conditions. Recent heavy rainfall warnings and a monitored tropical depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility have reinforced trader expectations for suppressed temperatures rather than clear-sky peaks near 32°C or higher. Updated model runs and official 24-hour outlooks will be the next key inputs before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,720End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) rains and associated cloud cover are the main factors capping Manila's expected daytime maximum on September 6.** PAGASA forecasts and multiple meteorological models show highs near 28–29°C under scattered to heavy thunderstorms, with high humidity and reduced solar insolation limiting warming. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 30°C (41.5%) and 29°C (26.5%), which sit close to the seasonal September average high of roughly 30–31°C but adjusted downward for active monsoon conditions. Recent heavy rainfall warnings and a monitored tropical depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility have reinforced trader expectations for suppressed temperatures rather than clear-sky peaks near 32°C or higher. Updated model runs and official 24-hour outlooks will be the next key inputs before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions