Current forecast consensus from models like GFS points to a minimum temperature of 13–15°C in Amsterdam on September 5 under high pressure, light westerly winds, and partly cloudy skies that permit moderate radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with the clustered market-implied odds around 14–16°C while keeping lower outcomes like 10°C or below near 49% due to residual uncertainty in dew point depression and cloud cover timing. Seasonal baselines show an average low of 11.8°C for the date, with recent observations indicating slightly warmer nocturnal conditions from Atlantic air advection that limits further drops. Traders are weighing these variables ahead of final hourly readings, as small shifts in wind speed or humidity could differentiate resolution between the leading bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 5?
16°C 54%
14°C 47%
13°C 45%
15°C 45%
$430 Vol.
$430 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
10°C or below
-
11°C
5%
12°C
7%
13°C
45%
14°C
47%
15°C
45%
16°C
54%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 54%
14°C 47%
13°C 45%
15°C 45%
$430 Vol.
$430 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
10°C or below
$15 Vol.
-
11°C
$12 Vol.
5%
12°C
$137 Vol.
7%
13°C
$0 Vol.
45%
14°C
$0 Vol.
47%
15°C
$0 Vol.
45%
16°C
$0 Vol.
54%
17°C
$131 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$45 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from models like GFS points to a minimum temperature of 13–15°C in Amsterdam on September 5 under high pressure, light westerly winds, and partly cloudy skies that permit moderate radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with the clustered market-implied odds around 14–16°C while keeping lower outcomes like 10°C or below near 49% due to residual uncertainty in dew point depression and cloud cover timing. Seasonal baselines show an average low of 11.8°C for the date, with recent observations indicating slightly warmer nocturnal conditions from Atlantic air advection that limits further drops. Traders are weighing these variables ahead of final hourly readings, as small shifts in wind speed or humidity could differentiate resolution between the leading bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$430End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from models like GFS points to a minimum temperature of 13–15°C in Amsterdam on September 5 under high pressure, light westerly winds, and partly cloudy skies that permit moderate radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with the clustered market-implied odds around 14–16°C while keeping lower outcomes like 10°C or below near 49% due to residual uncertainty in dew point depression and cloud cover timing. Seasonal baselines show an average low of 11.8°C for the date, with recent observations indicating slightly warmer nocturnal conditions from Atlantic air advection that limits further drops. Traders are weighing these variables ahead of final hourly readings, as small shifts in wind speed or humidity could differentiate resolution between the leading bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$430End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from models like GFS points to a minimum temperature of 13–15°C in Amsterdam on September 5 under high pressure, light westerly winds, and partly cloudy skies that permit moderate radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with the clustered market-implied odds around 14–16°C while keeping lower outcomes like 10°C or below near 49% due to residual uncertainty in dew point depression and cloud cover timing. Seasonal baselines show an average low of 11.8°C for the date, with recent observations indicating slightly warmer nocturnal conditions from Atlantic air advection that limits further drops. Traders are weighing these variables ahead of final hourly readings, as small shifts in wind speed or humidity could differentiate resolution between the leading bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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