Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Amsterdam's overnight low on September 7 will likely range between 14–17°C under southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, limiting radiative cooling. This places the outcome near the middle of the distribution, yet the 34.5% market-implied probability on 11°C or below reflects lingering uncertainty in ensemble guidance, where cooler solutions arise from potential stronger northerly advection or clearer breaks. Historical September averages near 11.6°C provide context, but current high-pressure influence and dew-point trends favor milder minima. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 24–48 hours will clarify whether steering patterns shift enough to push the low below 13°C or hold it near 15–16°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 7?
17°C 49%
15°C 27%
16°C 27%
12°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
11°C or below
15%
12°C
21%
13°C
21%
14°C
20%
15°C
27%
16°C
27%
17°C
49%
18°C
21%
19°C
8%
20°C
2%
21°C or higher
8%
17°C 49%
15°C 27%
16°C 27%
12°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
15%
12°C
$0 Vol.
21%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
20%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$0 Vol.
49%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
8%
20°C
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Amsterdam's overnight low on September 7 will likely range between 14–17°C under southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, limiting radiative cooling. This places the outcome near the middle of the distribution, yet the 34.5% market-implied probability on 11°C or below reflects lingering uncertainty in ensemble guidance, where cooler solutions arise from potential stronger northerly advection or clearer breaks. Historical September averages near 11.6°C provide context, but current high-pressure influence and dew-point trends favor milder minima. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 24–48 hours will clarify whether steering patterns shift enough to push the low below 13°C or hold it near 15–16°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Amsterdam's overnight low on September 7 will likely range between 14–17°C under southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, limiting radiative cooling. This places the outcome near the middle of the distribution, yet the 34.5% market-implied probability on 11°C or below reflects lingering uncertainty in ensemble guidance, where cooler solutions arise from potential stronger northerly advection or clearer breaks. Historical September averages near 11.6°C provide context, but current high-pressure influence and dew-point trends favor milder minima. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 24–48 hours will clarify whether steering patterns shift enough to push the low below 13°C or hold it near 15–16°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Amsterdam's overnight low on September 7 will likely range between 14–17°C under southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, limiting radiative cooling. This places the outcome near the middle of the distribution, yet the 34.5% market-implied probability on 11°C or below reflects lingering uncertainty in ensemble guidance, where cooler solutions arise from potential stronger northerly advection or clearer breaks. Historical September averages near 11.6°C provide context, but current high-pressure influence and dew-point trends favor milder minima. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 24–48 hours will clarify whether steering patterns shift enough to push the low below 13°C or hold it near 15–16°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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