**Current dry conditions and near-term forecasts are positioning below-average totals as the market favorite for Seoul's September 2026 precipitation.** Historical normals place September rainfall at roughly 128–141 mm, driven by the tail end of the East Asian monsoon and occasional typhoon influences, with daily rain probabilities declining from ~39% early in the month to ~20% by the end. As of September 5, Seoul has recorded minimal or zero precipitation amid clear to partly cloudy skies and northeasterly flow under high pressure, per Korea Meteorological Administration observations. Short-range models show limited rainfall through mid-month, reducing the likelihood of catching up to climatological averages. Traders appear to weigh these persistent dry patterns and steering patterns against the shrinking window for late-month typhoon or frontal activity that could push totals into the 100–150 mm range.