The even matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders, who split their two regular-season games in recent years and enter 2026 with comparable projected records near .500, drives the elevated probability of a series tie. Both clubs face challenging schedules outside the NFC East, with the Cowboys opening at home in Week 2 and hosting the return matchup in Week 18. Dallas returns the bulk of an offense that ranked among the league leaders in yards and points, though new defensive coordinator Christian Parker faces a tough test. Washington’s outlook hinges on the health of QB Jayden Daniels and an improved but still-rebuilding defense under Dan Quinn, yet recent training-camp reports highlight multiple injuries, including DT Jer’Zhan Newton’s pectoral surgery and other defensive depth concerns. These factors keep the implied probabilities tightly clustered around a split outcome.