The Parti Québécois leads the Quebec general election market at 69 percent implied probability, driven by consistent polling leads of roughly 30 percent support heading into the October 5, 2026, vote. Its advantage stems from strong backing among francophone voters, which translates into favorable seat projections under the first-past-the-post system despite a fragmented field. The Coalition Avenir Québec under new leader Christine Fréchette has seen its earlier post-leadership bump fade to around 20 percent, while the Parti Libéral du Québec trails slightly at 24–27 percent amid a split federalist vote also involving the Conservative Party of Quebec. Recent surveys through mid-August show limited movement, with many voters still undecided and the PQ positioned to form a majority government barring major late shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election Winner
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ 69%
CAQ 17%
PLQ 16%
PCQ <1%
$803,312 Vol.
$803,312 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
PQ
69%
CAQ
17%
PLQ
16%
PCQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PVQ
<1%
PQ 69%
CAQ 17%
PLQ 16%
PCQ <1%
$803,312 Vol.
$803,312 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
PQ
$91,951 Vol.
69%
CAQ
$114,660 Vol.
17%
PLQ
$106,621 Vol.
16%
PCQ
$229,200 Vol.
<1%
QS
$103,382 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,498 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois leads the Quebec general election market at 69 percent implied probability, driven by consistent polling leads of roughly 30 percent support heading into the October 5, 2026, vote. Its advantage stems from strong backing among francophone voters, which translates into favorable seat projections under the first-past-the-post system despite a fragmented field. The Coalition Avenir Québec under new leader Christine Fréchette has seen its earlier post-leadership bump fade to around 20 percent, while the Parti Libéral du Québec trails slightly at 24–27 percent amid a split federalist vote also involving the Conservative Party of Quebec. Recent surveys through mid-August show limited movement, with many voters still undecided and the PQ positioned to form a majority government barring major late shifts.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$803,312End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois leads the Quebec general election market at 69 percent implied probability, driven by consistent polling leads of roughly 30 percent support heading into the October 5, 2026, vote. Its advantage stems from strong backing among francophone voters, which translates into favorable seat projections under the first-past-the-post system despite a fragmented field. The Coalition Avenir Québec under new leader Christine Fréchette has seen its earlier post-leadership bump fade to around 20 percent, while the Parti Libéral du Québec trails slightly at 24–27 percent amid a split federalist vote also involving the Conservative Party of Quebec. Recent surveys through mid-August show limited movement, with many voters still undecided and the PQ positioned to form a majority government barring major late shifts.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$803,312End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Parti Québécois leads the Quebec general election market at 69 percent implied probability, driven by consistent polling leads of roughly 30 percent support heading into the October 5, 2026, vote. Its advantage stems from strong backing among francophone voters, which translates into favorable seat projections under the first-past-the-post system despite a fragmented field. The Coalition Avenir Québec under new leader Christine Fréchette has seen its earlier post-leadership bump fade to around 20 percent, while the Parti Libéral du Québec trails slightly at 24–27 percent amid a split federalist vote also involving the Conservative Party of Quebec. Recent surveys through mid-August show limited movement, with many voters still undecided and the PQ positioned to form a majority government barring major late shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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