Recent polls place the SPD between 5% and 7% in Saxony-Anhalt, with the latest INSA and Pollytix surveys from early-to-mid August showing 6% and 7% respectively. These figures sit near the 5% electoral threshold and reflect the party's long-term weakness in the state, where it trails far behind the AfD and CDU while competing with the Linke, Greens, BSW, and FDP for remaining votes. The incumbent CDU-SPD-FDP coalition has lost ground overall, and SPD lead candidate Armin Willingmann has emphasized a narrow but stable base without clear upward momentum. With the September 6 election two weeks away and margins of error straddling 6%, trader consensus on the "Under" side aligns with polling averages hovering at or below that level.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Over/Under 6%?
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Over/Under 6%?
Over
0% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
Over
0% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polls place the SPD between 5% and 7% in Saxony-Anhalt, with the latest INSA and Pollytix surveys from early-to-mid August showing 6% and 7% respectively. These figures sit near the 5% electoral threshold and reflect the party's long-term weakness in the state, where it trails far behind the AfD and CDU while competing with the Linke, Greens, BSW, and FDP for remaining votes. The incumbent CDU-SPD-FDP coalition has lost ground overall, and SPD lead candidate Armin Willingmann has emphasized a narrow but stable base without clear upward momentum. With the September 6 election two weeks away and margins of error straddling 6%, trader consensus on the "Under" side aligns with polling averages hovering at or below that level.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volume
$256End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polls place the SPD between 5% and 7% in Saxony-Anhalt, with the latest INSA and Pollytix surveys from early-to-mid August showing 6% and 7% respectively. These figures sit near the 5% electoral threshold and reflect the party's long-term weakness in the state, where it trails far behind the AfD and CDU while competing with the Linke, Greens, BSW, and FDP for remaining votes. The incumbent CDU-SPD-FDP coalition has lost ground overall, and SPD lead candidate Armin Willingmann has emphasized a narrow but stable base without clear upward momentum. With the September 6 election two weeks away and margins of error straddling 6%, trader consensus on the "Under" side aligns with polling averages hovering at or below that level.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$256End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls place the SPD between 5% and 7% in Saxony-Anhalt, with the latest INSA and Pollytix surveys from early-to-mid August showing 6% and 7% respectively. These figures sit near the 5% electoral threshold and reflect the party's long-term weakness in the state, where it trails far behind the AfD and CDU while competing with the Linke, Greens, BSW, and FDP for remaining votes. The incumbent CDU-SPD-FDP coalition has lost ground overall, and SPD lead candidate Armin Willingmann has emphasized a narrow but stable base without clear upward momentum. With the September 6 election two weeks away and margins of error straddling 6%, trader consensus on the "Under" side aligns with polling averages hovering at or below that level.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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