SpaceX (SPCX) trades near $1.85 trillion market cap as of late August 2026, following its June IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation that briefly pushed above $2.6 trillion before correcting amid post-listing volatility and a modest share-price rebound above the $135 offer. Trader sentiment centers on accelerating Starlink revenue—up 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion in Q2 2026—balanced against sustained net losses, elevated capital expenditures exceeding $20 billion annually, and integration of the xAI acquisition driving AI infrastructure bets. With resolution only weeks away, the clustered probabilities around $1.50–2.25 trillion reflect tight near-term trading ranges, sensitivity to any incremental launch or earnings updates, and limited scope for dramatic re-rating before September 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1.75-$2.00T 31%
$1.50-$1.75T 24%
<$1.00T 17.3%
$1.25-$1.50T 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<$1.00T
17%
$1.00-$1.25T
13%
$1.25-$1.50T
15%
$1.50-$1.75T
24%
$1.75-$2.00T
31%
$2.00-$2.25T
20%
$2.25T+
6%
$1.75-$2.00T 31%
$1.50-$1.75T 24%
<$1.00T 17.3%
$1.25-$1.50T 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<$1.00T
$116 Vol.
17%
$1.00-$1.25T
$80 Vol.
13%
$1.25-$1.50T
$944 Vol.
15%
$1.50-$1.75T
$99 Vol.
24%
$1.75-$2.00T
$3,000 Vol.
31%
$2.00-$2.25T
$98 Vol.
20%
$2.25T+
$78 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX (SPCX) trades near $1.85 trillion market cap as of late August 2026, following its June IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation that briefly pushed above $2.6 trillion before correcting amid post-listing volatility and a modest share-price rebound above the $135 offer. Trader sentiment centers on accelerating Starlink revenue—up 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion in Q2 2026—balanced against sustained net losses, elevated capital expenditures exceeding $20 billion annually, and integration of the xAI acquisition driving AI infrastructure bets. With resolution only weeks away, the clustered probabilities around $1.50–2.25 trillion reflect tight near-term trading ranges, sensitivity to any incremental launch or earnings updates, and limited scope for dramatic re-rating before September 30.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
Volume
$4,416End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX (SPCX) trades near $1.85 trillion market cap as of late August 2026, following its June IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation that briefly pushed above $2.6 trillion before correcting amid post-listing volatility and a modest share-price rebound above the $135 offer. Trader sentiment centers on accelerating Starlink revenue—up 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion in Q2 2026—balanced against sustained net losses, elevated capital expenditures exceeding $20 billion annually, and integration of the xAI acquisition driving AI infrastructure bets. With resolution only weeks away, the clustered probabilities around $1.50–2.25 trillion reflect tight near-term trading ranges, sensitivity to any incremental launch or earnings updates, and limited scope for dramatic re-rating before September 30.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$4,416End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX (SPCX) trades near $1.85 trillion market cap as of late August 2026, following its June IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation that briefly pushed above $2.6 trillion before correcting amid post-listing volatility and a modest share-price rebound above the $135 offer. Trader sentiment centers on accelerating Starlink revenue—up 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion in Q2 2026—balanced against sustained net losses, elevated capital expenditures exceeding $20 billion annually, and integration of the xAI acquisition driving AI infrastructure bets. With resolution only weeks away, the clustered probabilities around $1.50–2.25 trillion reflect tight near-term trading ranges, sensitivity to any incremental launch or earnings updates, and limited scope for dramatic re-rating before September 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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