Ongoing military clashes in North Kordofan and Blue Nile, including RSF drone strikes and SAF repels of advances, continue to drive territorial shifts and displacement without decisive gains by either side. A June prisoner exchange between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF), facilitated by the UN envoy, represents the first such step since 2023 and signals limited willingness for confidence-building measures amid battlefield attrition. SAF leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has launched intra-Sudanese dialogue with offers of temporary immunity for participants while maintaining demands for full RSF withdrawal from occupied cities as a precondition for any truce or settlement. Recent AU Peace and Security Council visits and US-backed proposals for a 90-day humanitarian truce have not produced agreements, as fragmented mediation and mutual mistrust persist. Upcoming regional and international consultations could test these positions, though intensified ground and aerial operations suggest continued barriers to near-term ceasefire outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSudan civil war ceasefire by...?
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$119,392 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
11%
$119,392 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$14,853 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.Ongoing military clashes in North Kordofan and Blue Nile, including RSF drone strikes and SAF repels of advances, continue to drive territorial shifts and displacement without decisive gains by either side. A June prisoner exchange between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF), facilitated by the UN envoy, represents the first such step since 2023 and signals limited willingness for confidence-building measures amid battlefield attrition. SAF leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has launched intra-Sudanese dialogue with offers of temporary immunity for participants while maintaining demands for full RSF withdrawal from occupied cities as a precondition for any truce or settlement. Recent AU Peace and Security Council visits and US-backed proposals for a 90-day humanitarian truce have not produced agreements, as fragmented mediation and mutual mistrust persist. Upcoming regional and international consultations could test these positions, though intensified ground and aerial operations suggest continued barriers to near-term ceasefire outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ET
Volume
$119,392End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.Ongoing military clashes in North Kordofan and Blue Nile, including RSF drone strikes and SAF repels of advances, continue to drive territorial shifts and displacement without decisive gains by either side. A June prisoner exchange between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF), facilitated by the UN envoy, represents the first such step since 2023 and signals limited willingness for confidence-building measures amid battlefield attrition. SAF leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has launched intra-Sudanese dialogue with offers of temporary immunity for participants while maintaining demands for full RSF withdrawal from occupied cities as a precondition for any truce or settlement. Recent AU Peace and Security Council visits and US-backed proposals for a 90-day humanitarian truce have not produced agreements, as fragmented mediation and mutual mistrust persist. Upcoming regional and international consultations could test these positions, though intensified ground and aerial operations suggest continued barriers to near-term ceasefire outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$119,392End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military clashes in North Kordofan and Blue Nile, including RSF drone strikes and SAF repels of advances, continue to drive territorial shifts and displacement without decisive gains by either side. A June prisoner exchange between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF), facilitated by the UN envoy, represents the first such step since 2023 and signals limited willingness for confidence-building measures amid battlefield attrition. SAF leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has launched intra-Sudanese dialogue with offers of temporary immunity for participants while maintaining demands for full RSF withdrawal from occupied cities as a precondition for any truce or settlement. Recent AU Peace and Security Council visits and US-backed proposals for a 90-day humanitarian truce have not produced agreements, as fragmented mediation and mutual mistrust persist. Upcoming regional and international consultations could test these positions, though intensified ground and aerial operations suggest continued barriers to near-term ceasefire outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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