Russia’s consistent rejection of any ceasefire or territorial freeze short of its core demands—full recognition of annexed regions, Ukrainian neutrality, and demobilization—remains the dominant factor sustaining trader expectations against a signed deal by late October. Kremlin statements through August 2026, including from Foreign Minister Lavrov and Security Council officials, have reiterated that military operations will continue until Moscow achieves its objectives, following the February suspension of US-mediated trilateral talks amid the Iran conflict. Ongoing Russian advances in Donbas and Ukrainian long-range strikes further indicate active hostilities rather than diplomatic momentum. While a sudden battlefield reversal, renewed high-level US pressure, or leadership decision could reopen channels before the deadline, the absence of recent verifiable progress or mutual concessions keeps the probability of resolution within the window low according to market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
5% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia’s consistent rejection of any ceasefire or territorial freeze short of its core demands—full recognition of annexed regions, Ukrainian neutrality, and demobilization—remains the dominant factor sustaining trader expectations against a signed deal by late October. Kremlin statements through August 2026, including from Foreign Minister Lavrov and Security Council officials, have reiterated that military operations will continue until Moscow achieves its objectives, following the February suspension of US-mediated trilateral talks amid the Iran conflict. Ongoing Russian advances in Donbas and Ukrainian long-range strikes further indicate active hostilities rather than diplomatic momentum. While a sudden battlefield reversal, renewed high-level US pressure, or leadership decision could reopen channels before the deadline, the absence of recent verifiable progress or mutual concessions keeps the probability of resolution within the window low according to market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$44End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia’s consistent rejection of any ceasefire or territorial freeze short of its core demands—full recognition of annexed regions, Ukrainian neutrality, and demobilization—remains the dominant factor sustaining trader expectations against a signed deal by late October. Kremlin statements through August 2026, including from Foreign Minister Lavrov and Security Council officials, have reiterated that military operations will continue until Moscow achieves its objectives, following the February suspension of US-mediated trilateral talks amid the Iran conflict. Ongoing Russian advances in Donbas and Ukrainian long-range strikes further indicate active hostilities rather than diplomatic momentum. While a sudden battlefield reversal, renewed high-level US pressure, or leadership decision could reopen channels before the deadline, the absence of recent verifiable progress or mutual concessions keeps the probability of resolution within the window low according to market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$44End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia’s consistent rejection of any ceasefire or territorial freeze short of its core demands—full recognition of annexed regions, Ukrainian neutrality, and demobilization—remains the dominant factor sustaining trader expectations against a signed deal by late October. Kremlin statements through August 2026, including from Foreign Minister Lavrov and Security Council officials, have reiterated that military operations will continue until Moscow achieves its objectives, following the February suspension of US-mediated trilateral talks amid the Iran conflict. Ongoing Russian advances in Donbas and Ukrainian long-range strikes further indicate active hostilities rather than diplomatic momentum. While a sudden battlefield reversal, renewed high-level US pressure, or leadership decision could reopen channels before the deadline, the absence of recent verifiable progress or mutual concessions keeps the probability of resolution within the window low according to market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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