**Persistent geopolitical tensions and severely constrained commercial flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue to anchor market-implied odds, with "No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026" at 70.5% reflecting entrenched barriers to normalization.** As of late August 2026, the waterway remains effectively closed to standard insured commercial traffic—daily transits hover near 1% of pre-crisis levels of roughly 70–130 vessels, with war-risk premiums at approximately 40 times peacetime rates. Major container lines have rerouted or suspended use, hundreds of vessels remain stranded, and throughput relies on selective Iranian permissions, dark transits, or limited U.S.-facilitated southern corridors amid ongoing IRGC activity and high insurance costs. Brent crude prices near $94 per barrel embed these supply risks, supported by bypass pipelines operating near capacity but insufficient to fully offset the chokepoint. Recent months have seen stalled partial recoveries collapse amid kinetic incidents, enforcement actions, and shifting corridor controls, with no sustained rebound in open, low-risk transits. The slim probabilities assigned to September–December (under 10% combined) align with the absence of near-term de-escalation catalysts or verifiable commitments that would restore pre-crisis volumes, insurance availability, and carrier confidence before year-end. Traders appear to price the situation as a prolonged structural disruption rather than a transient event, consistent with insurance market signals and real-money positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 71%
December 9%
October 8%
November 8%
$320,496 Vol.
$320,496 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
August
1%
September
6%
October
8%
November
8%
December
9%
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
71%
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 71%
December 9%
October 8%
November 8%
$320,496 Vol.
$320,496 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
August
$47,544 Vol.
1%
September
$16,973 Vol.
6%
October
$9,242 Vol.
8%
November
$7,168 Vol.
8%
December
$17,389 Vol.
9%
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
$196,355 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent geopolitical tensions and severely constrained commercial flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue to anchor market-implied odds, with "No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026" at 70.5% reflecting entrenched barriers to normalization.**
As of late August 2026, the waterway remains effectively closed to standard insured commercial traffic—daily transits hover near 1% of pre-crisis levels of roughly 70–130 vessels, with war-risk premiums at approximately 40 times peacetime rates. Major container lines have rerouted or suspended use, hundreds of vessels remain stranded, and throughput relies on selective Iranian permissions, dark transits, or limited U.S.-facilitated southern corridors amid ongoing IRGC activity and high insurance costs. Brent crude prices near $94 per barrel embed these supply risks, supported by bypass pipelines operating near capacity but insufficient to fully offset the chokepoint.
Recent months have seen stalled partial recoveries collapse amid kinetic incidents, enforcement actions, and shifting corridor controls, with no sustained rebound in open, low-risk transits. The slim probabilities assigned to September–December (under 10% combined) align with the absence of near-term de-escalation catalysts or verifiable commitments that would restore pre-crisis volumes, insurance availability, and carrier confidence before year-end. Traders appear to price the situation as a prolonged structural disruption rather than a transient event, consistent with insurance market signals and real-money positioning.
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Jul 8, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$320,496End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent geopolitical tensions and severely constrained commercial flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue to anchor market-implied odds, with "No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026" at 70.5% reflecting entrenched barriers to normalization.**
As of late August 2026, the waterway remains effectively closed to standard insured commercial traffic—daily transits hover near 1% of pre-crisis levels of roughly 70–130 vessels, with war-risk premiums at approximately 40 times peacetime rates. Major container lines have rerouted or suspended use, hundreds of vessels remain stranded, and throughput relies on selective Iranian permissions, dark transits, or limited U.S.-facilitated southern corridors amid ongoing IRGC activity and high insurance costs. Brent crude prices near $94 per barrel embed these supply risks, supported by bypass pipelines operating near capacity but insufficient to fully offset the chokepoint.
Recent months have seen stalled partial recoveries collapse amid kinetic incidents, enforcement actions, and shifting corridor controls, with no sustained rebound in open, low-risk transits. The slim probabilities assigned to September–December (under 10% combined) align with the absence of near-term de-escalation catalysts or verifiable commitments that would restore pre-crisis volumes, insurance availability, and carrier confidence before year-end. Traders appear to price the situation as a prolonged structural disruption rather than a transient event, consistent with insurance market signals and real-money positioning.
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$320,496End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent geopolitical tensions and severely constrained commercial flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue to anchor market-implied odds, with "No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026" at 70.5% reflecting entrenched barriers to normalization.** As of late August 2026, the waterway remains effectively closed to standard insured commercial traffic—daily transits hover near 1% of pre-crisis levels of roughly 70–130 vessels, with war-risk premiums at approximately 40 times peacetime rates. Major container lines have rerouted or suspended use, hundreds of vessels remain stranded, and throughput relies on selective Iranian permissions, dark transits, or limited U.S.-facilitated southern corridors amid ongoing IRGC activity and high insurance costs. Brent crude prices near $94 per barrel embed these supply risks, supported by bypass pipelines operating near capacity but insufficient to fully offset the chokepoint. Recent months have seen stalled partial recoveries collapse amid kinetic incidents, enforcement actions, and shifting corridor controls, with no sustained rebound in open, low-risk transits. The slim probabilities assigned to September–December (under 10% combined) align with the absence of near-term de-escalation catalysts or verifiable commitments that would restore pre-crisis volumes, insurance availability, and carrier confidence before year-end. Traders appear to price the situation as a prolonged structural disruption rather than a transient event, consistent with insurance market signals and real-money positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions