Traders assign a 99.2% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization or crossing preparations in the final weeks before the deadline. Beijing continues routine gray-zone pressure through aircraft incursions, naval patrols, and coast-guard activity around the island, alongside live-fire drills and rhetoric on unification, but these fall short of the sustained buildup required for a full-scale operation. Taiwan has accelerated defense spending, civil-resilience exercises, and drone procurement in response, while U.S. assessments indicate no fixed 2026 invasion timetable. The narrow window, high operational risks of an amphibious assault, and potential economic fallout sustain the strong consensus against near-term conflict, though an unanticipated escalation or miscalculation remains a low-probability tail risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$2,009,657 Vol.
$2,009,657 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<1% chance
$2,009,657 Vol.
$2,009,657 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.2% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization or crossing preparations in the final weeks before the deadline. Beijing continues routine gray-zone pressure through aircraft incursions, naval patrols, and coast-guard activity around the island, alongside live-fire drills and rhetoric on unification, but these fall short of the sustained buildup required for a full-scale operation. Taiwan has accelerated defense spending, civil-resilience exercises, and drone procurement in response, while U.S. assessments indicate no fixed 2026 invasion timetable. The narrow window, high operational risks of an amphibious assault, and potential economic fallout sustain the strong consensus against near-term conflict, though an unanticipated escalation or miscalculation remains a low-probability tail risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$2,009,657End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.2% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization or crossing preparations in the final weeks before the deadline. Beijing continues routine gray-zone pressure through aircraft incursions, naval patrols, and coast-guard activity around the island, alongside live-fire drills and rhetoric on unification, but these fall short of the sustained buildup required for a full-scale operation. Taiwan has accelerated defense spending, civil-resilience exercises, and drone procurement in response, while U.S. assessments indicate no fixed 2026 invasion timetable. The narrow window, high operational risks of an amphibious assault, and potential economic fallout sustain the strong consensus against near-term conflict, though an unanticipated escalation or miscalculation remains a low-probability tail risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,009,657End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.2% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization or crossing preparations in the final weeks before the deadline. Beijing continues routine gray-zone pressure through aircraft incursions, naval patrols, and coast-guard activity around the island, alongside live-fire drills and rhetoric on unification, but these fall short of the sustained buildup required for a full-scale operation. Taiwan has accelerated defense spending, civil-resilience exercises, and drone procurement in response, while U.S. assessments indicate no fixed 2026 invasion timetable. The narrow window, high operational risks of an amphibious assault, and potential economic fallout sustain the strong consensus against near-term conflict, though an unanticipated escalation or miscalculation remains a low-probability tail risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions