Russia remains heavily committed to its ongoing campaign in Ukraine as of mid-2026, with forces conducting incremental advances in the east amid intensified drone and missile exchanges that have strained both sides' resources and logistics. No verified preparations or actions point to a new conventional invasion of another sovereign state in the remaining months of the year, despite a May 2026 Russian law expanding presidential authority for foreign military operations. Analyst assessments highlight potential hybrid risks or limited probes against NATO-adjacent areas in later years, yet current military tempo, economic pressures, and diplomatic isolation continue to anchor trader views toward the absence of fresh territorial aggression before year-end.