Traders assign a 99.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of verifiable indicators such as large-scale amphibious mobilization, sustained logistics buildup, or command signals for imminent action. Beijing continues routine gray-zone operations including air incursions and maritime patrols, while Taiwan conducts its annual Han Kuang exercises with expanded reservist participation and asymmetric defense measures. U.S. naval transits and diplomatic engagements reinforce deterrence without triggering escalation. Structural barriers including economic costs, alliance responses, and preparation timelines make a full-scale offensive improbable within the narrow window. Late-breaking miscalculation during drills, sudden leadership signaling, or external shocks remain the primary factors that could still alter the outcome before resolution.