France’s minority government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu faces entrenched parliamentary fragmentation that has repeatedly delayed fiscal legislation. The 2026 budget required Article 49.3 invocation, multiple no-confidence motions, and concessions to the Socialists before eventual passage in February 2026—more than a month late—after the prior year’s measures were rolled over via special finance bill. With public debt above €3.5 trillion, the deficit stuck near 5% of GDP, and the 2026 growth forecast trimmed to 0.7%, officials must now deliver additional savings for the 2027 draft due this fall. Polarization ahead of the 2027 presidential election limits appetite for meaningful consolidation, raising the risk of renewed brinkmanship, further 49.3 use, or another rollover. These structural barriers underpin the 67.5% market-implied probability that no full national budget will clear by December 31.