Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during the U.S.-Israel conflict that began in late February. As the sitting supreme leader, he holds ultimate authority over Iran's military, foreign policy, and security apparatus, including recent August 2026 appointments that consolidated control over the armed forces and Supreme National Security Council. No public statements or verified reports indicate plans for departure, and his role keeps him central to regime decision-making amid ongoing regional tensions. Succession rules and institutional requirements further tie leadership continuity to remaining in Iran.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$107,404 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
October 31
4%
December 31
10%
$107,404 Vol.
August 31
$65,341 Vol.
<1%
October 31
$90 Vol.
4%
December 31
$71 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during the U.S.-Israel conflict that began in late February. As the sitting supreme leader, he holds ultimate authority over Iran's military, foreign policy, and security apparatus, including recent August 2026 appointments that consolidated control over the armed forces and Supreme National Security Council. No public statements or verified reports indicate plans for departure, and his role keeps him central to regime decision-making amid ongoing regional tensions. Succession rules and institutional requirements further tie leadership continuity to remaining in Iran.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ET
Volume
$107,404End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during the U.S.-Israel conflict that began in late February. As the sitting supreme leader, he holds ultimate authority over Iran's military, foreign policy, and security apparatus, including recent August 2026 appointments that consolidated control over the armed forces and Supreme National Security Council. No public statements or verified reports indicate plans for departure, and his role keeps him central to regime decision-making amid ongoing regional tensions. Succession rules and institutional requirements further tie leadership continuity to remaining in Iran.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$107,404End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during the U.S.-Israel conflict that began in late February. As the sitting supreme leader, he holds ultimate authority over Iran's military, foreign policy, and security apparatus, including recent August 2026 appointments that consolidated control over the armed forces and Supreme National Security Council. No public statements or verified reports indicate plans for departure, and his role keeps him central to regime decision-making amid ongoing regional tensions. Succession rules and institutional requirements further tie leadership continuity to remaining in Iran.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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