Russian forces have faced sustained Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Novopavlivka-Oleksandrivka sector of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts through mid-2026, with Ukrainian units reclaiming over 600 square kilometers and more than two dozen settlements by mid-August. These operations disrupted earlier Russian attempts to advance westward from the Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka axes, where Novodmytrivka was previously targeted as part of infiltration and encirclement efforts. Russian claims of incremental gains elsewhere, such as around Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk, continue but lack confirmed territorial control in the specific Novodmytrivka area amid Ukrainian drone strikes, artillery, and localized counterattacks. Trader consensus reflects these battlefield dynamics, with recent Ukrainian territorial recoveries and ongoing strikes on Russian logistics lowering near-term capture probabilities. Scheduled developments include continued Russian pressure on the Fortress Belt cities and Ukrainian long-range operations against rear-area targets, which could further constrain offensive momentum on either side depending on manpower, munitions, and air defense performance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Russia capture Novodmytrivka by...?
Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by...?
$93,221 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
17%
$93,221 Vol.
September 30
$30,804 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.756666° N, 35.372420° E in Novodmytrivka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka3.png
Intersection Location in Novodmytrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka2.png
Novodmytrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka1.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/aeukB8q42paroXdk9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have faced sustained Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Novopavlivka-Oleksandrivka sector of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts through mid-2026, with Ukrainian units reclaiming over 600 square kilometers and more than two dozen settlements by mid-August. These operations disrupted earlier Russian attempts to advance westward from the Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka axes, where Novodmytrivka was previously targeted as part of infiltration and encirclement efforts. Russian claims of incremental gains elsewhere, such as around Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk, continue but lack confirmed territorial control in the specific Novodmytrivka area amid Ukrainian drone strikes, artillery, and localized counterattacks.
Trader consensus reflects these battlefield dynamics, with recent Ukrainian territorial recoveries and ongoing strikes on Russian logistics lowering near-term capture probabilities. Scheduled developments include continued Russian pressure on the Fortress Belt cities and Ukrainian long-range operations against rear-area targets, which could further constrain offensive momentum on either side depending on manpower, munitions, and air defense performance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.756666° N, 35.372420° E in Novodmytrivka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka3.png
Intersection Location in Novodmytrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka2.png
Novodmytrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka1.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/aeukB8q42paroXdk9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka3.png
Intersection Location in Novodmytrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka2.png
Novodmytrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka1.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/aeukB8q42paroXdk9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volume
$93,221End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.756666° N, 35.372420° E in Novodmytrivka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka3.png
Intersection Location in Novodmytrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka2.png
Novodmytrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka1.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/aeukB8q42paroXdk9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have faced sustained Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Novopavlivka-Oleksandrivka sector of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts through mid-2026, with Ukrainian units reclaiming over 600 square kilometers and more than two dozen settlements by mid-August. These operations disrupted earlier Russian attempts to advance westward from the Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka axes, where Novodmytrivka was previously targeted as part of infiltration and encirclement efforts. Russian claims of incremental gains elsewhere, such as around Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk, continue but lack confirmed territorial control in the specific Novodmytrivka area amid Ukrainian drone strikes, artillery, and localized counterattacks.
Trader consensus reflects these battlefield dynamics, with recent Ukrainian territorial recoveries and ongoing strikes on Russian logistics lowering near-term capture probabilities. Scheduled developments include continued Russian pressure on the Fortress Belt cities and Ukrainian long-range operations against rear-area targets, which could further constrain offensive momentum on either side depending on manpower, munitions, and air defense performance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.756666° N, 35.372420° E in Novodmytrivka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka3.png
Intersection Location in Novodmytrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka2.png
Novodmytrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka1.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/aeukB8q42paroXdk9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka3.png
Intersection Location in Novodmytrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka2.png
Novodmytrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka1.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/aeukB8q42paroXdk9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$93,221End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have faced sustained Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Novopavlivka-Oleksandrivka sector of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts through mid-2026, with Ukrainian units reclaiming over 600 square kilometers and more than two dozen settlements by mid-August. These operations disrupted earlier Russian attempts to advance westward from the Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka axes, where Novodmytrivka was previously targeted as part of infiltration and encirclement efforts. Russian claims of incremental gains elsewhere, such as around Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk, continue but lack confirmed territorial control in the specific Novodmytrivka area amid Ukrainian drone strikes, artillery, and localized counterattacks. Trader consensus reflects these battlefield dynamics, with recent Ukrainian territorial recoveries and ongoing strikes on Russian logistics lowering near-term capture probabilities. Scheduled developments include continued Russian pressure on the Fortress Belt cities and Ukrainian long-range operations against rear-area targets, which could further constrain offensive momentum on either side depending on manpower, munitions, and air defense performance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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