**Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration attempts and small-group assaults toward Rai-Oleksandrivka (also spelled Рай-Олександрівка), a settlement east of Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast, but Ukrainian sources and ISW assessments indicate the village remains contested or in the grey zone without confirmed full Russian control as of mid-August 2026.** Russia claimed capture in June 2026, yet Ukrainian military spokespersons described these statements as information operations, noting repelled assaults, drone strikes, and Ukrainian control over key positions despite Russian presence on the outskirts or in parts of the grey zone. Fighting has continued along roads and forested approaches north of the settlement, with Russian sabotage-reconnaissance groups (DRGs) attempting to entrench in nearby Mykolaivka and advance westward. A major Ukrainian counteroffensive on the broader Oleksandrivka axis (January–August 2026) liberated 26 settlements and over 600 square kilometers across Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, blunting earlier Russian momentum and demonstrating Ukrainian capacity for localized mechanized advances supported by drones and combined-arms tactics. Recent reports (August 2026) show ongoing Russian pressure in the Sloviansk direction alongside Ukrainian special forces operations that have retaken nearby positions and captured Russian personnel. Trader sentiment on related Polymarket contracts reflects these dynamics: proximity to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration gives the location tactical value, but Ukrainian defensive adaptations, artillery, and drone operations have repeatedly disrupted consolidation attempts. Resolution hinges on verified territorial control per ISW mapping by the contract’s deadline, with outcomes sensitive to incremental frontline shifts, reinforcement flows, and any escalation or de-escalation in the sector.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?
$165,112 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
82%
September 30
28%
$165,112 Vol.
December 31
$21,714 Vol.
82%
September 30
$26,400 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.810403° N, 37.851396° E in Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png
Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png
Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration attempts and small-group assaults toward Rai-Oleksandrivka (also spelled Рай-Олександрівка), a settlement east of Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast, but Ukrainian sources and ISW assessments indicate the village remains contested or in the grey zone without confirmed full Russian control as of mid-August 2026.**
Russia claimed capture in June 2026, yet Ukrainian military spokespersons described these statements as information operations, noting repelled assaults, drone strikes, and Ukrainian control over key positions despite Russian presence on the outskirts or in parts of the grey zone. Fighting has continued along roads and forested approaches north of the settlement, with Russian sabotage-reconnaissance groups (DRGs) attempting to entrench in nearby Mykolaivka and advance westward.
A major Ukrainian counteroffensive on the broader Oleksandrivka axis (January–August 2026) liberated 26 settlements and over 600 square kilometers across Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, blunting earlier Russian momentum and demonstrating Ukrainian capacity for localized mechanized advances supported by drones and combined-arms tactics. Recent reports (August 2026) show ongoing Russian pressure in the Sloviansk direction alongside Ukrainian special forces operations that have retaken nearby positions and captured Russian personnel.
Trader sentiment on related Polymarket contracts reflects these dynamics: proximity to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration gives the location tactical value, but Ukrainian defensive adaptations, artillery, and drone operations have repeatedly disrupted consolidation attempts. Resolution hinges on verified territorial control per ISW mapping by the contract’s deadline, with outcomes sensitive to incremental frontline shifts, reinforcement flows, and any escalation or de-escalation in the sector.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.810403° N, 37.851396° E in Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png
Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png
Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png
Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png
Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: May 27, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volume
$165,112End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.810403° N, 37.851396° E in Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png
Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png
Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration attempts and small-group assaults toward Rai-Oleksandrivka (also spelled Рай-Олександрівка), a settlement east of Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast, but Ukrainian sources and ISW assessments indicate the village remains contested or in the grey zone without confirmed full Russian control as of mid-August 2026.**
Russia claimed capture in June 2026, yet Ukrainian military spokespersons described these statements as information operations, noting repelled assaults, drone strikes, and Ukrainian control over key positions despite Russian presence on the outskirts or in parts of the grey zone. Fighting has continued along roads and forested approaches north of the settlement, with Russian sabotage-reconnaissance groups (DRGs) attempting to entrench in nearby Mykolaivka and advance westward.
A major Ukrainian counteroffensive on the broader Oleksandrivka axis (January–August 2026) liberated 26 settlements and over 600 square kilometers across Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, blunting earlier Russian momentum and demonstrating Ukrainian capacity for localized mechanized advances supported by drones and combined-arms tactics. Recent reports (August 2026) show ongoing Russian pressure in the Sloviansk direction alongside Ukrainian special forces operations that have retaken nearby positions and captured Russian personnel.
Trader sentiment on related Polymarket contracts reflects these dynamics: proximity to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration gives the location tactical value, but Ukrainian defensive adaptations, artillery, and drone operations have repeatedly disrupted consolidation attempts. Resolution hinges on verified territorial control per ISW mapping by the contract’s deadline, with outcomes sensitive to incremental frontline shifts, reinforcement flows, and any escalation or de-escalation in the sector.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.810403° N, 37.851396° E in Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png
Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png
Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png
Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png
Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$165,112End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration attempts and small-group assaults toward Rai-Oleksandrivka (also spelled Рай-Олександрівка), a settlement east of Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast, but Ukrainian sources and ISW assessments indicate the village remains contested or in the grey zone without confirmed full Russian control as of mid-August 2026.** Russia claimed capture in June 2026, yet Ukrainian military spokespersons described these statements as information operations, noting repelled assaults, drone strikes, and Ukrainian control over key positions despite Russian presence on the outskirts or in parts of the grey zone. Fighting has continued along roads and forested approaches north of the settlement, with Russian sabotage-reconnaissance groups (DRGs) attempting to entrench in nearby Mykolaivka and advance westward. A major Ukrainian counteroffensive on the broader Oleksandrivka axis (January–August 2026) liberated 26 settlements and over 600 square kilometers across Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, blunting earlier Russian momentum and demonstrating Ukrainian capacity for localized mechanized advances supported by drones and combined-arms tactics. Recent reports (August 2026) show ongoing Russian pressure in the Sloviansk direction alongside Ukrainian special forces operations that have retaken nearby positions and captured Russian personnel. Trader sentiment on related Polymarket contracts reflects these dynamics: proximity to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration gives the location tactical value, but Ukrainian defensive adaptations, artillery, and drone operations have repeatedly disrupted consolidation attempts. Resolution hinges on verified territorial control per ISW mapping by the contract’s deadline, with outcomes sensitive to incremental frontline shifts, reinforcement flows, and any escalation or de-escalation in the sector.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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