Recent legislative efforts underscore why traders assign only a 6% chance that the House will pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30. An amendment offered by Rep. Thomas Massie to H.R. 8595, the FY2027 State Department appropriations bill, sought to eliminate the $3.3 billion Foreign Military Financing allocation for Israel; it failed 314-104 in mid-July, drawing support from just 103 Democrats and one Republican. House Republicans have uniformly opposed such measures, while Democratic leadership largely rejected them despite internal divisions. The broader appropriations framework and related defense authorization legislation continue to include substantial U.S.-Israel security assistance, consistent with longstanding policy under the current administration. No new floor action or committee developments have emerged since the July vote to alter this trajectory before the market deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
6% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent legislative efforts underscore why traders assign only a 6% chance that the House will pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30. An amendment offered by Rep. Thomas Massie to H.R. 8595, the FY2027 State Department appropriations bill, sought to eliminate the $3.3 billion Foreign Military Financing allocation for Israel; it failed 314-104 in mid-July, drawing support from just 103 Democrats and one Republican. House Republicans have uniformly opposed such measures, while Democratic leadership largely rejected them despite internal divisions. The broader appropriations framework and related defense authorization legislation continue to include substantial U.S.-Israel security assistance, consistent with longstanding policy under the current administration. No new floor action or committee developments have emerged since the July vote to alter this trajectory before the market deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,972End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent legislative efforts underscore why traders assign only a 6% chance that the House will pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30. An amendment offered by Rep. Thomas Massie to H.R. 8595, the FY2027 State Department appropriations bill, sought to eliminate the $3.3 billion Foreign Military Financing allocation for Israel; it failed 314-104 in mid-July, drawing support from just 103 Democrats and one Republican. House Republicans have uniformly opposed such measures, while Democratic leadership largely rejected them despite internal divisions. The broader appropriations framework and related defense authorization legislation continue to include substantial U.S.-Israel security assistance, consistent with longstanding policy under the current administration. No new floor action or committee developments have emerged since the July vote to alter this trajectory before the market deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,972End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent legislative efforts underscore why traders assign only a 6% chance that the House will pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30. An amendment offered by Rep. Thomas Massie to H.R. 8595, the FY2027 State Department appropriations bill, sought to eliminate the $3.3 billion Foreign Military Financing allocation for Israel; it failed 314-104 in mid-July, drawing support from just 103 Democrats and one Republican. House Republicans have uniformly opposed such measures, while Democratic leadership largely rejected them despite internal divisions. The broader appropriations framework and related defense authorization legislation continue to include substantial U.S.-Israel security assistance, consistent with longstanding policy under the current administration. No new floor action or committee developments have emerged since the July vote to alter this trajectory before the market deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions