Alibaba's dominant 69.5% implied probability stems primarily from its early August release of the 2.4-trillion-parameter Qwen3.8-Max model, which quickly climbed Chinese and global leaderboards for coding, reasoning, and multimodal tasks while promising open weights. This built on the Qwen family's record of over three billion downloads, outpacing rivals on platforms like Hugging Face and Arena, and reinforced Alibaba's edge in developer adoption and ecosystem scale. Moonshot's July Kimi K3 launch (2.8T parameters, strong agentic benchmarks) and Z.ai's GLM-5.2 updates provided competitive pressure but have not shifted trader consensus ahead of the September resolution. DeepSeek's ultra-low-cost V4 variants and other labs trail in visibility and usage metrics. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus that Alibaba's momentum in open large language models will hold through month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlibaba 70%
Z.ai 18%
Moonshot 8.9%
DeepSeek 2.6%
$112,579 Vol.
$112,579 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Alibaba
70%
Z.ai
18%
Moonshot
9%
DeepSeek
3%
Xiaomi
2%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Tencent
<1%
Meituan
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Alibaba 70%
Z.ai 18%
Moonshot 8.9%
DeepSeek 2.6%
$112,579 Vol.
$112,579 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Alibaba
$40,787 Vol.
70%
Z.ai
$9,553 Vol.
18%
Moonshot
$10,380 Vol.
9%
DeepSeek
$11,462 Vol.
3%
Xiaomi
$5,906 Vol.
2%
Baidu
$8,090 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$7,779 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$5,345 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$5,968 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$3,698 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$3,612 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba's dominant 69.5% implied probability stems primarily from its early August release of the 2.4-trillion-parameter Qwen3.8-Max model, which quickly climbed Chinese and global leaderboards for coding, reasoning, and multimodal tasks while promising open weights. This built on the Qwen family's record of over three billion downloads, outpacing rivals on platforms like Hugging Face and Arena, and reinforced Alibaba's edge in developer adoption and ecosystem scale. Moonshot's July Kimi K3 launch (2.8T parameters, strong agentic benchmarks) and Z.ai's GLM-5.2 updates provided competitive pressure but have not shifted trader consensus ahead of the September resolution. DeepSeek's ultra-low-cost V4 variants and other labs trail in visibility and usage metrics. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus that Alibaba's momentum in open large language models will hold through month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$112,579End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba's dominant 69.5% implied probability stems primarily from its early August release of the 2.4-trillion-parameter Qwen3.8-Max model, which quickly climbed Chinese and global leaderboards for coding, reasoning, and multimodal tasks while promising open weights. This built on the Qwen family's record of over three billion downloads, outpacing rivals on platforms like Hugging Face and Arena, and reinforced Alibaba's edge in developer adoption and ecosystem scale. Moonshot's July Kimi K3 launch (2.8T parameters, strong agentic benchmarks) and Z.ai's GLM-5.2 updates provided competitive pressure but have not shifted trader consensus ahead of the September resolution. DeepSeek's ultra-low-cost V4 variants and other labs trail in visibility and usage metrics. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus that Alibaba's momentum in open large language models will hold through month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$112,579End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alibaba's dominant 69.5% implied probability stems primarily from its early August release of the 2.4-trillion-parameter Qwen3.8-Max model, which quickly climbed Chinese and global leaderboards for coding, reasoning, and multimodal tasks while promising open weights. This built on the Qwen family's record of over three billion downloads, outpacing rivals on platforms like Hugging Face and Arena, and reinforced Alibaba's edge in developer adoption and ecosystem scale. Moonshot's July Kimi K3 launch (2.8T parameters, strong agentic benchmarks) and Z.ai's GLM-5.2 updates provided competitive pressure but have not shifted trader consensus ahead of the September resolution. DeepSeek's ultra-low-cost V4 variants and other labs trail in visibility and usage metrics. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus that Alibaba's momentum in open large language models will hold through month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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