Mike Thompson leads the CA-04 House race at 69.5% in trader consensus, with Eric Jones at 29.5%, reflecting the incumbent Democrat’s 41% primary finish and 14-term tenure against Jones’ 22% showing in the June 2, 2026, top-two contest. Redistricting added rural, more conservative counties including Sutter, Yuba, and Colusa, yet the seat retains a strong Democratic tilt per forecasters. Thompson benefits from established party endorsements, committee influence, and voter familiarity in core Napa and North Bay areas. Jones, a self-funded progressive newcomer, gained ground through a late-August 2026 endorsement from eliminated Republican Ray Riehle, who launched outreach targeting GOP and independent voters, alongside debate challenges across all nine counties. The November 3 general election remains the decisive event, with limited late shifts noted in current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)
CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Mike Thompson
70%
Eric Jones
28%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Mike Thompson
$6,730 Vol.
70%
Eric Jones
$2,089 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Thompson leads the CA-04 House race at 69.5% in trader consensus, with Eric Jones at 29.5%, reflecting the incumbent Democrat’s 41% primary finish and 14-term tenure against Jones’ 22% showing in the June 2, 2026, top-two contest. Redistricting added rural, more conservative counties including Sutter, Yuba, and Colusa, yet the seat retains a strong Democratic tilt per forecasters. Thompson benefits from established party endorsements, committee influence, and voter familiarity in core Napa and North Bay areas. Jones, a self-funded progressive newcomer, gained ground through a late-August 2026 endorsement from eliminated Republican Ray Riehle, who launched outreach targeting GOP and independent voters, alongside debate challenges across all nine counties. The November 3 general election remains the decisive event, with limited late shifts noted in current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$8,819End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Thompson leads the CA-04 House race at 69.5% in trader consensus, with Eric Jones at 29.5%, reflecting the incumbent Democrat’s 41% primary finish and 14-term tenure against Jones’ 22% showing in the June 2, 2026, top-two contest. Redistricting added rural, more conservative counties including Sutter, Yuba, and Colusa, yet the seat retains a strong Democratic tilt per forecasters. Thompson benefits from established party endorsements, committee influence, and voter familiarity in core Napa and North Bay areas. Jones, a self-funded progressive newcomer, gained ground through a late-August 2026 endorsement from eliminated Republican Ray Riehle, who launched outreach targeting GOP and independent voters, alongside debate challenges across all nine counties. The November 3 general election remains the decisive event, with limited late shifts noted in current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,819End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mike Thompson leads the CA-04 House race at 69.5% in trader consensus, with Eric Jones at 29.5%, reflecting the incumbent Democrat’s 41% primary finish and 14-term tenure against Jones’ 22% showing in the June 2, 2026, top-two contest. Redistricting added rural, more conservative counties including Sutter, Yuba, and Colusa, yet the seat retains a strong Democratic tilt per forecasters. Thompson benefits from established party endorsements, committee influence, and voter familiarity in core Napa and North Bay areas. Jones, a self-funded progressive newcomer, gained ground through a late-August 2026 endorsement from eliminated Republican Ray Riehle, who launched outreach targeting GOP and independent voters, alongside debate challenges across all nine counties. The November 3 general election remains the decisive event, with limited late shifts noted in current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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