Persistent inflationary pressures from the Middle East energy shock have anchored the ECB's hawkish monetary policy stance, with the deposit facility rate held at 2.25% after the June hike and markets fully pricing a potential September increase toward 2.50%. Elevated oil prices above $90 per barrel, supply risks, and limited second-round effects have shifted trader consensus toward higher-for-longer rates through year-end, with professional forecasters seeing the policy rate peaking near 2.50% before any gradual moderation. This dynamic supports the 93% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026. A durable de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or sharper downside growth surprises could still reopen easing discussions later in the year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8% chance
$31,829 Vol.
$31,829 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
8% chance
$31,829 Vol.
$31,829 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflationary pressures from the Middle East energy shock have anchored the ECB's hawkish monetary policy stance, with the deposit facility rate held at 2.25% after the June hike and markets fully pricing a potential September increase toward 2.50%. Elevated oil prices above $90 per barrel, supply risks, and limited second-round effects have shifted trader consensus toward higher-for-longer rates through year-end, with professional forecasters seeing the policy rate peaking near 2.50% before any gradual moderation. This dynamic supports the 93% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026. A durable de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or sharper downside growth surprises could still reopen easing discussions later in the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$31,829End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflationary pressures from the Middle East energy shock have anchored the ECB's hawkish monetary policy stance, with the deposit facility rate held at 2.25% after the June hike and markets fully pricing a potential September increase toward 2.50%. Elevated oil prices above $90 per barrel, supply risks, and limited second-round effects have shifted trader consensus toward higher-for-longer rates through year-end, with professional forecasters seeing the policy rate peaking near 2.50% before any gradual moderation. This dynamic supports the 93% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026. A durable de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or sharper downside growth surprises could still reopen easing discussions later in the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,829End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflationary pressures from the Middle East energy shock have anchored the ECB's hawkish monetary policy stance, with the deposit facility rate held at 2.25% after the June hike and markets fully pricing a potential September increase toward 2.50%. Elevated oil prices above $90 per barrel, supply risks, and limited second-round effects have shifted trader consensus toward higher-for-longer rates through year-end, with professional forecasters seeing the policy rate peaking near 2.50% before any gradual moderation. This dynamic supports the 93% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026. A durable de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or sharper downside growth surprises could still reopen easing discussions later in the year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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