US authorities indicted former Cuban leader Raúl Castro in May 2026 on charges tied to the 1996 downing of two civilian aircraft, issuing an arrest warrant while signaling possible enforcement options similar to prior operations against other figures. Trader sentiment remains subdued due to Castro's advanced age, continued presence in Cuba, and Havana's firm resistance to extradition or surrender. Recent public appearances by the 95-year-old and his absence from select commemorations underscore limited immediate prospects for custody. Key variables include any escalation in bilateral pressure, diplomatic negotiations, or internal Cuban developments that could alter his status before resolution deadlines, though structural barriers such as sovereignty and enforcement feasibility keep implied probabilities low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$822,646 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
6%
$822,646 Vol.
December 31
$27,823 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.US authorities indicted former Cuban leader Raúl Castro in May 2026 on charges tied to the 1996 downing of two civilian aircraft, issuing an arrest warrant while signaling possible enforcement options similar to prior operations against other figures. Trader sentiment remains subdued due to Castro's advanced age, continued presence in Cuba, and Havana's firm resistance to extradition or surrender. Recent public appearances by the 95-year-old and his absence from select commemorations underscore limited immediate prospects for custody. Key variables include any escalation in bilateral pressure, diplomatic negotiations, or internal Cuban developments that could alter his status before resolution deadlines, though structural barriers such as sovereignty and enforcement feasibility keep implied probabilities low.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
Volume
$822,646End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.US authorities indicted former Cuban leader Raúl Castro in May 2026 on charges tied to the 1996 downing of two civilian aircraft, issuing an arrest warrant while signaling possible enforcement options similar to prior operations against other figures. Trader sentiment remains subdued due to Castro's advanced age, continued presence in Cuba, and Havana's firm resistance to extradition or surrender. Recent public appearances by the 95-year-old and his absence from select commemorations underscore limited immediate prospects for custody. Key variables include any escalation in bilateral pressure, diplomatic negotiations, or internal Cuban developments that could alter his status before resolution deadlines, though structural barriers such as sovereignty and enforcement feasibility keep implied probabilities low.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$822,646End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US authorities indicted former Cuban leader Raúl Castro in May 2026 on charges tied to the 1996 downing of two civilian aircraft, issuing an arrest warrant while signaling possible enforcement options similar to prior operations against other figures. Trader sentiment remains subdued due to Castro's advanced age, continued presence in Cuba, and Havana's firm resistance to extradition or surrender. Recent public appearances by the 95-year-old and his absence from select commemorations underscore limited immediate prospects for custody. Key variables include any escalation in bilateral pressure, diplomatic negotiations, or internal Cuban developments that could alter his status before resolution deadlines, though structural barriers such as sovereignty and enforcement feasibility keep implied probabilities low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions