**The US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 3, 2026 military operation, fulfilling one instance of leader capture early in the year.** This action, conducted under the Trump administration and tied to drug and weapons charges, triggered widespread international condemnation, legal challenges under international law, and questions about sovereignty and precedent. With more than eight months remaining in 2026, traders assign only a 5.5% chance to a second capture because no comparable operations or credible targets have emerged. Diplomatic fallout, institutional constraints on unilateral military action, and the absence of announced escalations against other foreign leaders all reinforce expectations that the Maduro case will remain an outlier rather than the start of a pattern. Resolution hinges on whether any additional head of state or government is taken into US custody by December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
6% chance
$81,054 Vol.
$81,054 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
6% chance
$81,054 Vol.
$81,054 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 3, 2026 military operation, fulfilling one instance of leader capture early in the year.** This action, conducted under the Trump administration and tied to drug and weapons charges, triggered widespread international condemnation, legal challenges under international law, and questions about sovereignty and precedent.
With more than eight months remaining in 2026, traders assign only a 5.5% chance to a second capture because no comparable operations or credible targets have emerged. Diplomatic fallout, institutional constraints on unilateral military action, and the absence of announced escalations against other foreign leaders all reinforce expectations that the Maduro case will remain an outlier rather than the start of a pattern. Resolution hinges on whether any additional head of state or government is taken into US custody by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$81,054End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 3, 2026 military operation, fulfilling one instance of leader capture early in the year.** This action, conducted under the Trump administration and tied to drug and weapons charges, triggered widespread international condemnation, legal challenges under international law, and questions about sovereignty and precedent.
With more than eight months remaining in 2026, traders assign only a 5.5% chance to a second capture because no comparable operations or credible targets have emerged. Diplomatic fallout, institutional constraints on unilateral military action, and the absence of announced escalations against other foreign leaders all reinforce expectations that the Maduro case will remain an outlier rather than the start of a pattern. Resolution hinges on whether any additional head of state or government is taken into US custody by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$81,054End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 3, 2026 military operation, fulfilling one instance of leader capture early in the year.** This action, conducted under the Trump administration and tied to drug and weapons charges, triggered widespread international condemnation, legal challenges under international law, and questions about sovereignty and precedent. With more than eight months remaining in 2026, traders assign only a 5.5% chance to a second capture because no comparable operations or credible targets have emerged. Diplomatic fallout, institutional constraints on unilateral military action, and the absence of announced escalations against other foreign leaders all reinforce expectations that the Maduro case will remain an outlier rather than the start of a pattern. Resolution hinges on whether any additional head of state or government is taken into US custody by December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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