Escalating U.S.-Iran military actions in the Persian Gulf have elevated financial risks tied to Iran's key energy assets, including Kharg Island's oil terminal—which handles roughly 90% of its crude exports—and positions near the Strait of Hormuz that influence global flows of about one-fifth of seaborne oil and LNG. Recent U.S. strikes on military targets at Kharg and contested islands, alongside naval blockades and Iranian toll attempts, have caused sharp swings in tanker traffic, with loadings halted for weeks before partial restarts in mid-August 2026 amid rerouting efforts. These developments sustain elevated risk premiums in Brent and WTI crude, currently near four-week highs above $90, while pressuring Iranian revenues and broader energy benchmarks. Ongoing stalemate in talks and potential further strikes keep volatility elevated ahead of any resolution milestones.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$102,710 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
3%
$102,710 Vol.
August 31
$33,607 Vol.
1%
September 30
$69,195 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military actions in the Persian Gulf have elevated financial risks tied to Iran's key energy assets, including Kharg Island's oil terminal—which handles roughly 90% of its crude exports—and positions near the Strait of Hormuz that influence global flows of about one-fifth of seaborne oil and LNG. Recent U.S. strikes on military targets at Kharg and contested islands, alongside naval blockades and Iranian toll attempts, have caused sharp swings in tanker traffic, with loadings halted for weeks before partial restarts in mid-August 2026 amid rerouting efforts. These developments sustain elevated risk premiums in Brent and WTI crude, currently near four-week highs above $90, while pressuring Iranian revenues and broader energy benchmarks. Ongoing stalemate in talks and potential further strikes keep volatility elevated ahead of any resolution milestones.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$102,710End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military actions in the Persian Gulf have elevated financial risks tied to Iran's key energy assets, including Kharg Island's oil terminal—which handles roughly 90% of its crude exports—and positions near the Strait of Hormuz that influence global flows of about one-fifth of seaborne oil and LNG. Recent U.S. strikes on military targets at Kharg and contested islands, alongside naval blockades and Iranian toll attempts, have caused sharp swings in tanker traffic, with loadings halted for weeks before partial restarts in mid-August 2026 amid rerouting efforts. These developments sustain elevated risk premiums in Brent and WTI crude, currently near four-week highs above $90, while pressuring Iranian revenues and broader energy benchmarks. Ongoing stalemate in talks and potential further strikes keep volatility elevated ahead of any resolution milestones.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$102,710End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran military actions in the Persian Gulf have elevated financial risks tied to Iran's key energy assets, including Kharg Island's oil terminal—which handles roughly 90% of its crude exports—and positions near the Strait of Hormuz that influence global flows of about one-fifth of seaborne oil and LNG. Recent U.S. strikes on military targets at Kharg and contested islands, alongside naval blockades and Iranian toll attempts, have caused sharp swings in tanker traffic, with loadings halted for weeks before partial restarts in mid-August 2026 amid rerouting efforts. These developments sustain elevated risk premiums in Brent and WTI crude, currently near four-week highs above $90, while pressuring Iranian revenues and broader energy benchmarks. Ongoing stalemate in talks and potential further strikes keep volatility elevated ahead of any resolution milestones.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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