Recent inflation data and labor market conditions are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting, with the federal funds rate currently at 3.50-3.75%. July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year, remaining above the 2% target and supporting the 27.5% implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike, while July unemployment held steady at 4.1% and recent employment readings showed limited softening that bolsters the 62.5% odds of no change. The July FOMC decision to hold rates amid a divided vote and new Chair communications has tempered immediate easing bets, leaving the 9.3% probability of a 25-basis-point cut as a lower-probability outcome. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital trader views on the policy path versus official guidance. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI release on September 11, and subsequent employment data that could shift rate expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 63%
25 bps increase 28%
25 bps decrease 9.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$273,183 Vol.
$273,183 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
9%
No change
63%
25 bps increase
28%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 63%
25 bps increase 28%
25 bps decrease 9.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$273,183 Vol.
$273,183 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$51,873 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$59,787 Vol.
9%
No change
$49,331 Vol.
63%
25 bps increase
$57,085 Vol.
28%
50+ bps increase
$55,106 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data and labor market conditions are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting, with the federal funds rate currently at 3.50-3.75%. July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year, remaining above the 2% target and supporting the 27.5% implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike, while July unemployment held steady at 4.1% and recent employment readings showed limited softening that bolsters the 62.5% odds of no change. The July FOMC decision to hold rates amid a divided vote and new Chair communications has tempered immediate easing bets, leaving the 9.3% probability of a 25-basis-point cut as a lower-probability outcome. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital trader views on the policy path versus official guidance. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI release on September 11, and subsequent employment data that could shift rate expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$273,183End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data and labor market conditions are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting, with the federal funds rate currently at 3.50-3.75%. July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year, remaining above the 2% target and supporting the 27.5% implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike, while July unemployment held steady at 4.1% and recent employment readings showed limited softening that bolsters the 62.5% odds of no change. The July FOMC decision to hold rates amid a divided vote and new Chair communications has tempered immediate easing bets, leaving the 9.3% probability of a 25-basis-point cut as a lower-probability outcome. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital trader views on the policy path versus official guidance. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI release on September 11, and subsequent employment data that could shift rate expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$273,183End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data and labor market conditions are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting, with the federal funds rate currently at 3.50-3.75%. July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year, remaining above the 2% target and supporting the 27.5% implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike, while July unemployment held steady at 4.1% and recent employment readings showed limited softening that bolsters the 62.5% odds of no change. The July FOMC decision to hold rates amid a divided vote and new Chair communications has tempered immediate easing bets, leaving the 9.3% probability of a 25-basis-point cut as a lower-probability outcome. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital trader views on the policy path versus official guidance. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI release on September 11, and subsequent employment data that could shift rate expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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