Persistent inflation at 3.4% in July 2026, supported by elevated oil prices from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, forms the main driver behind the 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike during the year. The policy rate has held at 3.50%-3.75% through the July FOMC meeting, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point increase, while core measures and unemployment at 4.1% show modest cooling. Futures markets price a gradual rise toward 3.8% by late 2026, reflecting trader consensus on restrictive policy amid supply shocks. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC decision and the August CPI release on September 11, which could clarify whether recent disinflation proves durable or if geopolitical pressures sustain the case for tightening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated55% chance
$7,884,213 Vol.
$7,884,213 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
55% chance
$7,884,213 Vol.
$7,884,213 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation at 3.4% in July 2026, supported by elevated oil prices from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, forms the main driver behind the 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike during the year. The policy rate has held at 3.50%-3.75% through the July FOMC meeting, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point increase, while core measures and unemployment at 4.1% show modest cooling. Futures markets price a gradual rise toward 3.8% by late 2026, reflecting trader consensus on restrictive policy amid supply shocks. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC decision and the August CPI release on September 11, which could clarify whether recent disinflation proves durable or if geopolitical pressures sustain the case for tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$7,884,213End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation at 3.4% in July 2026, supported by elevated oil prices from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, forms the main driver behind the 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike during the year. The policy rate has held at 3.50%-3.75% through the July FOMC meeting, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point increase, while core measures and unemployment at 4.1% show modest cooling. Futures markets price a gradual rise toward 3.8% by late 2026, reflecting trader consensus on restrictive policy amid supply shocks. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC decision and the August CPI release on September 11, which could clarify whether recent disinflation proves durable or if geopolitical pressures sustain the case for tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,884,213End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation at 3.4% in July 2026, supported by elevated oil prices from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, forms the main driver behind the 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike during the year. The policy rate has held at 3.50%-3.75% through the July FOMC meeting, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point increase, while core measures and unemployment at 4.1% show modest cooling. Futures markets price a gradual rise toward 3.8% by late 2026, reflecting trader consensus on restrictive policy amid supply shocks. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC decision and the August CPI release on September 11, which could clarify whether recent disinflation proves durable or if geopolitical pressures sustain the case for tightening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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