Elevated inflation pressures from energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions have kept the market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 near even at 54.5 percent, balancing against a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1-4.3 percent and mixed but resilient job growth. The June FOMC dot plot showed a median 3.8 percent funds rate projection for year-end and nine participants expecting hikes, while recent July minutes revealed three dissents favoring immediate tightening and broad agreement that policy may need to tighten if inflation fails to moderate from levels around 3.5-4.1 percent on PCE and CPI measures. With the target range holding at 3.50-3.75 percent, traders are weighing hawkish central bank communications against incoming data that could clarify whether supply-driven price increases persist or ease, particularly ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation and employment releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated55% chance
$7,883,947 Vol.
$7,883,947 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
55% chance
$7,883,947 Vol.
$7,883,947 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation pressures from energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions have kept the market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 near even at 54.5 percent, balancing against a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1-4.3 percent and mixed but resilient job growth. The June FOMC dot plot showed a median 3.8 percent funds rate projection for year-end and nine participants expecting hikes, while recent July minutes revealed three dissents favoring immediate tightening and broad agreement that policy may need to tighten if inflation fails to moderate from levels around 3.5-4.1 percent on PCE and CPI measures. With the target range holding at 3.50-3.75 percent, traders are weighing hawkish central bank communications against incoming data that could clarify whether supply-driven price increases persist or ease, particularly ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation and employment releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$7,883,947End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation pressures from energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions have kept the market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 near even at 54.5 percent, balancing against a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1-4.3 percent and mixed but resilient job growth. The June FOMC dot plot showed a median 3.8 percent funds rate projection for year-end and nine participants expecting hikes, while recent July minutes revealed three dissents favoring immediate tightening and broad agreement that policy may need to tighten if inflation fails to moderate from levels around 3.5-4.1 percent on PCE and CPI measures. With the target range holding at 3.50-3.75 percent, traders are weighing hawkish central bank communications against incoming data that could clarify whether supply-driven price increases persist or ease, particularly ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation and employment releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,883,947End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation pressures from energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions have kept the market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 near even at 54.5 percent, balancing against a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1-4.3 percent and mixed but resilient job growth. The June FOMC dot plot showed a median 3.8 percent funds rate projection for year-end and nine participants expecting hikes, while recent July minutes revealed three dissents favoring immediate tightening and broad agreement that policy may need to tighten if inflation fails to moderate from levels around 3.5-4.1 percent on PCE and CPI measures. With the target range holding at 3.50-3.75 percent, traders are weighing hawkish central bank communications against incoming data that could clarify whether supply-driven price increases persist or ease, particularly ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation and employment releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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