**Congressional leaders advanced bipartisan continuing resolutions in July and early August 2026 to extend federal funding past the September 30 deadline, sharply reducing the risk of an appropriations lapse on October 1.** The House approved a clean CR extending operations through December 4, while the Senate passed a version through December 11 before its August recess; the measure returns to the House after Labor Day. These actions follow repeated past shutdowns in FY2026 and reflect explicit priorities to prevent disruption ahead of the midterms, with Appropriations Committee leaders emphasizing stable operations and a path to full-year bills. Trader consensus at 87% against a lapse tracks these enacted procedural steps and the absence of major unresolved disputes or holds that would block timely passage before the new fiscal year begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Congressional leaders advanced bipartisan continuing resolutions in July and early August 2026 to extend federal funding past the September 30 deadline, sharply reducing the risk of an appropriations lapse on October 1.** The House approved a clean CR extending operations through December 4, while the Senate passed a version through December 11 before its August recess; the measure returns to the House after Labor Day. These actions follow repeated past shutdowns in FY2026 and reflect explicit priorities to prevent disruption ahead of the midterms, with Appropriations Committee leaders emphasizing stable operations and a path to full-year bills. Trader consensus at 87% against a lapse tracks these enacted procedural steps and the absence of major unresolved disputes or holds that would block timely passage before the new fiscal year begins.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,340End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Congressional leaders advanced bipartisan continuing resolutions in July and early August 2026 to extend federal funding past the September 30 deadline, sharply reducing the risk of an appropriations lapse on October 1.** The House approved a clean CR extending operations through December 4, while the Senate passed a version through December 11 before its August recess; the measure returns to the House after Labor Day. These actions follow repeated past shutdowns in FY2026 and reflect explicit priorities to prevent disruption ahead of the midterms, with Appropriations Committee leaders emphasizing stable operations and a path to full-year bills. Trader consensus at 87% against a lapse tracks these enacted procedural steps and the absence of major unresolved disputes or holds that would block timely passage before the new fiscal year begins.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,340End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Congressional leaders advanced bipartisan continuing resolutions in July and early August 2026 to extend federal funding past the September 30 deadline, sharply reducing the risk of an appropriations lapse on October 1.** The House approved a clean CR extending operations through December 4, while the Senate passed a version through December 11 before its August recess; the measure returns to the House after Labor Day. These actions follow repeated past shutdowns in FY2026 and reflect explicit priorities to prevent disruption ahead of the midterms, with Appropriations Committee leaders emphasizing stable operations and a path to full-year bills. Trader consensus at 87% against a lapse tracks these enacted procedural steps and the absence of major unresolved disputes or holds that would block timely passage before the new fiscal year begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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