**Traders see a 95% probability that Flávio Bolsonaro will not face new charges or arrest by September 30, 2026, reflecting the slow pace of ongoing Brazilian judicial processes and his active role in the presidential campaign.** Flávio Bolsonaro, the PL senator and leading opposition candidate against incumbent President Lula, remains free and engaged in election activities as of mid-to-late August 2026. Existing probes include a Federal Police finding of calúnia (slander) in his social media posts linking Lula to international crimes, now with the Procuradoria-Geral da República for a charging decision, and scrutiny over funding for the “Dark Horse” documentary from jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro amid the Banco Master fraud case. The Supreme Court (STF) has authorized further investigation into the latter, but no formal charges or arrest warrants have materialized. Brazilian judicial timelines, combined with procedural steps such as prosecutorial review and potential appeals, make resolution within the narrow window unlikely absent a sudden major development. His public campaigning, recent candidacy registration with the TSE, and asset disclosures underscore his operational status without immediate custodial risk. Historical patterns in high-profile political cases further support the market’s assessment that swift enforcement against a sitting senator and presidential contender remains improbable in the coming weeks.