Greater Tunb Island remains under Iranian administration as part of Hormozgan province, with an IRGC garrison, naval facilities, and missile infrastructure supporting Strait of Hormuz surveillance and interdiction. Iran seized the island in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb; the UAE, inheriting claims from Ras al-Khaimah, continues to label the territories occupied and presses for resolution via bilateral talks or the ICJ, a position backed in GCC and EU statements. In mid-July 2026, during escalated U.S.-Iran hostilities, U.S. Central Command conducted precision airstrikes on Greater Tunb targeting coastal defenses and cruise-missile sites to limit threats to commercial shipping. No ground operations or transfer of control followed, and Iran has since reaffirmed sovereignty through official registrations and diplomatic warnings. Trader assessments reflect the durability of Iranian military presence, the absence of imminent occupation scenarios, and the primarily diplomatic or limited-kinetic nature of recent pressure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$52,967 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$52,967 Vol.
August 31
$30,459 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Greater Tunb Island remains under Iranian administration as part of Hormozgan province, with an IRGC garrison, naval facilities, and missile infrastructure supporting Strait of Hormuz surveillance and interdiction. Iran seized the island in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb; the UAE, inheriting claims from Ras al-Khaimah, continues to label the territories occupied and presses for resolution via bilateral talks or the ICJ, a position backed in GCC and EU statements. In mid-July 2026, during escalated U.S.-Iran hostilities, U.S. Central Command conducted precision airstrikes on Greater Tunb targeting coastal defenses and cruise-missile sites to limit threats to commercial shipping. No ground operations or transfer of control followed, and Iran has since reaffirmed sovereignty through official registrations and diplomatic warnings. Trader assessments reflect the durability of Iranian military presence, the absence of imminent occupation scenarios, and the primarily diplomatic or limited-kinetic nature of recent pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volume
$52,967End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Greater Tunb Island remains under Iranian administration as part of Hormozgan province, with an IRGC garrison, naval facilities, and missile infrastructure supporting Strait of Hormuz surveillance and interdiction. Iran seized the island in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb; the UAE, inheriting claims from Ras al-Khaimah, continues to label the territories occupied and presses for resolution via bilateral talks or the ICJ, a position backed in GCC and EU statements. In mid-July 2026, during escalated U.S.-Iran hostilities, U.S. Central Command conducted precision airstrikes on Greater Tunb targeting coastal defenses and cruise-missile sites to limit threats to commercial shipping. No ground operations or transfer of control followed, and Iran has since reaffirmed sovereignty through official registrations and diplomatic warnings. Trader assessments reflect the durability of Iranian military presence, the absence of imminent occupation scenarios, and the primarily diplomatic or limited-kinetic nature of recent pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$52,967End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Greater Tunb Island remains under Iranian administration as part of Hormozgan province, with an IRGC garrison, naval facilities, and missile infrastructure supporting Strait of Hormuz surveillance and interdiction. Iran seized the island in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb; the UAE, inheriting claims from Ras al-Khaimah, continues to label the territories occupied and presses for resolution via bilateral talks or the ICJ, a position backed in GCC and EU statements. In mid-July 2026, during escalated U.S.-Iran hostilities, U.S. Central Command conducted precision airstrikes on Greater Tunb targeting coastal defenses and cruise-missile sites to limit threats to commercial shipping. No ground operations or transfer of control followed, and Iran has since reaffirmed sovereignty through official registrations and diplomatic warnings. Trader assessments reflect the durability of Iranian military presence, the absence of imminent occupation scenarios, and the primarily diplomatic or limited-kinetic nature of recent pressure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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