xAI's repeated delays on Grok 5, now confirmed still in training on the Colossus 2 supercluster with 6-10 trillion parameter variants, have shaped trader sentiment around a late-2026 release. Multiple missed windows—late 2025, Q1, and Q2 2026—prompted interim Grok 4.5 and 4.6 launches in July and August, the latter matching GPT-5.6 on key benchmarks while adding supplemental SpaceX data training. Elon Musk's recent statements targeting Grok 4.7 within weeks and Grok 5 by year-end, alongside the model's Mixture-of-Experts architecture and gigawatt-scale compute, reinforce expectations of a frontier leap once training completes. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and OpenAI models, plus xAI's focus on agentic capabilities, keeps the market sensitive to any verified training milestones or benchmark leaks before December.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Dec 31, 2026
August 31
1%
October 31
29%
November 30
50%
December 31
67%
$6,480 Vol.
August 31
$2,906 Vol.
1%
October 31
$340 Vol.
29%
November 30
$0 Vol.
50%
December 31
$1,711 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's repeated delays on Grok 5, now confirmed still in training on the Colossus 2 supercluster with 6-10 trillion parameter variants, have shaped trader sentiment around a late-2026 release. Multiple missed windows—late 2025, Q1, and Q2 2026—prompted interim Grok 4.5 and 4.6 launches in July and August, the latter matching GPT-5.6 on key benchmarks while adding supplemental SpaceX data training. Elon Musk's recent statements targeting Grok 4.7 within weeks and Grok 5 by year-end, alongside the model's Mixture-of-Experts architecture and gigawatt-scale compute, reinforce expectations of a frontier leap once training completes. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and OpenAI models, plus xAI's focus on agentic capabilities, keeps the market sensitive to any verified training milestones or benchmark leaks before December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$6,480End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's repeated delays on Grok 5, now confirmed still in training on the Colossus 2 supercluster with 6-10 trillion parameter variants, have shaped trader sentiment around a late-2026 release. Multiple missed windows—late 2025, Q1, and Q2 2026—prompted interim Grok 4.5 and 4.6 launches in July and August, the latter matching GPT-5.6 on key benchmarks while adding supplemental SpaceX data training. Elon Musk's recent statements targeting Grok 4.7 within weeks and Grok 5 by year-end, alongside the model's Mixture-of-Experts architecture and gigawatt-scale compute, reinforce expectations of a frontier leap once training completes. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and OpenAI models, plus xAI's focus on agentic capabilities, keeps the market sensitive to any verified training milestones or benchmark leaks before December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,480End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's repeated delays on Grok 5, now confirmed still in training on the Colossus 2 supercluster with 6-10 trillion parameter variants, have shaped trader sentiment around a late-2026 release. Multiple missed windows—late 2025, Q1, and Q2 2026—prompted interim Grok 4.5 and 4.6 launches in July and August, the latter matching GPT-5.6 on key benchmarks while adding supplemental SpaceX data training. Elon Musk's recent statements targeting Grok 4.7 within weeks and Grok 5 by year-end, alongside the model's Mixture-of-Experts architecture and gigawatt-scale compute, reinforce expectations of a frontier leap once training completes. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and OpenAI models, plus xAI's focus on agentic capabilities, keeps the market sensitive to any verified training milestones or benchmark leaks before December.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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