xAI continues iterative releases of its Grok 4.x series, with Grok 4.5 and 4.6 now available across platforms and showing competitive performance on benchmarks for coding, reasoning, and real-world tasks against models like GPT-5.6 and Claude 5 variants. Grok 5 remains in active training on expanded Colossus infrastructure, with no public beta or API rollout as of mid-August 2026 despite earlier targets for Q1-Q2. Elon Musk has stated on earnings calls and X that the model should launch before year-end, positioning it as a major scale-up potentially reaching multi-trillion parameters and closer to AGI-level capabilities. Traders monitor compute milestones, internal progress signals, and competitive AI lab timelines as key swing factors for resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Nov 30, 2026
August 31
1%
October 31
28%
November 30
46%
December 31
67%
$6,480 Vol.
August 31
$2,906 Vol.
1%
October 31
$340 Vol.
28%
November 30
$0 Vol.
46%
December 31
$1,711 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI continues iterative releases of its Grok 4.x series, with Grok 4.5 and 4.6 now available across platforms and showing competitive performance on benchmarks for coding, reasoning, and real-world tasks against models like GPT-5.6 and Claude 5 variants. Grok 5 remains in active training on expanded Colossus infrastructure, with no public beta or API rollout as of mid-August 2026 despite earlier targets for Q1-Q2. Elon Musk has stated on earnings calls and X that the model should launch before year-end, positioning it as a major scale-up potentially reaching multi-trillion parameters and closer to AGI-level capabilities. Traders monitor compute milestones, internal progress signals, and competitive AI lab timelines as key swing factors for resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$6,480End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI continues iterative releases of its Grok 4.x series, with Grok 4.5 and 4.6 now available across platforms and showing competitive performance on benchmarks for coding, reasoning, and real-world tasks against models like GPT-5.6 and Claude 5 variants. Grok 5 remains in active training on expanded Colossus infrastructure, with no public beta or API rollout as of mid-August 2026 despite earlier targets for Q1-Q2. Elon Musk has stated on earnings calls and X that the model should launch before year-end, positioning it as a major scale-up potentially reaching multi-trillion parameters and closer to AGI-level capabilities. Traders monitor compute milestones, internal progress signals, and competitive AI lab timelines as key swing factors for resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,480End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI continues iterative releases of its Grok 4.x series, with Grok 4.5 and 4.6 now available across platforms and showing competitive performance on benchmarks for coding, reasoning, and real-world tasks against models like GPT-5.6 and Claude 5 variants. Grok 5 remains in active training on expanded Colossus infrastructure, with no public beta or API rollout as of mid-August 2026 despite earlier targets for Q1-Q2. Elon Musk has stated on earnings calls and X that the model should launch before year-end, positioning it as a major scale-up potentially reaching multi-trillion parameters and closer to AGI-level capabilities. Traders monitor compute milestones, internal progress signals, and competitive AI lab timelines as key swing factors for resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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