Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green secured his party's nomination with 88.5% in the August 8 primary, facing Republican businessman Gary Cordery, who won his nomination with 75.9%. Hawaii's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and historical voting patterns favoring Democrats by wide margins, underpins the 96.5% trader consensus for a Democratic win. Green's incumbency and the absence of a competitive Republican challenge further reinforce this positioning in the November 3 general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-cycle developments such as unexpected scandals, shifts in voter turnout among key demographics, or significant economic events, though these remain low-probability given current fundamentals and the state's structural partisan balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHawaii Governor Election Winner
Hawaii Governor Election Winner
$14,953 Vol.
$14,953 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
97%
Republican
2%
$14,953 Vol.
$14,953 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
$6,747 Vol.
97%
Republican
$8,207 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green secured his party's nomination with 88.5% in the August 8 primary, facing Republican businessman Gary Cordery, who won his nomination with 75.9%. Hawaii's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and historical voting patterns favoring Democrats by wide margins, underpins the 96.5% trader consensus for a Democratic win. Green's incumbency and the absence of a competitive Republican challenge further reinforce this positioning in the November 3 general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-cycle developments such as unexpected scandals, shifts in voter turnout among key demographics, or significant economic events, though these remain low-probability given current fundamentals and the state's structural partisan balance.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$14,953End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green secured his party's nomination with 88.5% in the August 8 primary, facing Republican businessman Gary Cordery, who won his nomination with 75.9%. Hawaii's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and historical voting patterns favoring Democrats by wide margins, underpins the 96.5% trader consensus for a Democratic win. Green's incumbency and the absence of a competitive Republican challenge further reinforce this positioning in the November 3 general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-cycle developments such as unexpected scandals, shifts in voter turnout among key demographics, or significant economic events, though these remain low-probability given current fundamentals and the state's structural partisan balance.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$14,953End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green secured his party's nomination with 88.5% in the August 8 primary, facing Republican businessman Gary Cordery, who won his nomination with 75.9%. Hawaii's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and historical voting patterns favoring Democrats by wide margins, underpins the 96.5% trader consensus for a Democratic win. Green's incumbency and the absence of a competitive Republican challenge further reinforce this positioning in the November 3 general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-cycle developments such as unexpected scandals, shifts in voter turnout among key demographics, or significant economic events, though these remain low-probability given current fundamentals and the state's structural partisan balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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