Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, producing the market's strong consensus around that total. Confirmed retirements include Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Joni Ernst in Iowa, Steve Daines in Montana, Cynthia Lummis in Wyoming, and Alan Armstrong in Oklahoma, alongside two additional GOP departures tied to age, health, or gubernatorial ambitions. These decisions followed earlier exits by figures such as Mitch McConnell and reflect broader turnover patterns after the prior election, with filing deadlines approaching the market's late-August resolution. No further Republican retirements have materialized in recent weeks, keeping the seven-outcome probability elevated while leaving limited room for late shifts from primary challenges or unexpected announcements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7 87%
9 3.6%
5 2.5%
12+ 2.2%
$102,797 Vol.
$102,797 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<5
2%
5
2%
6
1%
7
87%
8
1%
9
4%
10
2%
11
<1%
12+
2%
7 87%
9 3.6%
5 2.5%
12+ 2.2%
$102,797 Vol.
$102,797 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<5
$22,835 Vol.
2%
5
$17,777 Vol.
2%
6
$27,272 Vol.
1%
7
$17,674 Vol.
87%
8
$4,648 Vol.
1%
9
$2,293 Vol.
4%
10
$1,931 Vol.
2%
11
$3,230 Vol.
<1%
12+
$5,137 Vol.
2%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, producing the market's strong consensus around that total. Confirmed retirements include Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Joni Ernst in Iowa, Steve Daines in Montana, Cynthia Lummis in Wyoming, and Alan Armstrong in Oklahoma, alongside two additional GOP departures tied to age, health, or gubernatorial ambitions. These decisions followed earlier exits by figures such as Mitch McConnell and reflect broader turnover patterns after the prior election, with filing deadlines approaching the market's late-August resolution. No further Republican retirements have materialized in recent weeks, keeping the seven-outcome probability elevated while leaving limited room for late shifts from primary challenges or unexpected announcements.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$102,797End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, producing the market's strong consensus around that total. Confirmed retirements include Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Joni Ernst in Iowa, Steve Daines in Montana, Cynthia Lummis in Wyoming, and Alan Armstrong in Oklahoma, alongside two additional GOP departures tied to age, health, or gubernatorial ambitions. These decisions followed earlier exits by figures such as Mitch McConnell and reflect broader turnover patterns after the prior election, with filing deadlines approaching the market's late-August resolution. No further Republican retirements have materialized in recent weeks, keeping the seven-outcome probability elevated while leaving limited room for late shifts from primary challenges or unexpected announcements.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$102,797End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, producing the market's strong consensus around that total. Confirmed retirements include Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Joni Ernst in Iowa, Steve Daines in Montana, Cynthia Lummis in Wyoming, and Alan Armstrong in Oklahoma, alongside two additional GOP departures tied to age, health, or gubernatorial ambitions. These decisions followed earlier exits by figures such as Mitch McConnell and reflect broader turnover patterns after the prior election, with filing deadlines approaching the market's late-August resolution. No further Republican retirements have materialized in recent weeks, keeping the seven-outcome probability elevated while leaving limited room for late shifts from primary challenges or unexpected announcements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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