Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz have driven repeated attacks on commercial tankers and vessels since early 2026, including strikes on multiple ships in July that prompted U.S. military responses and reduced daily traffic to single digits by mid-August. Key developments include Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps warnings, boarding incidents, and demands for ships to route through Iranian territorial waters rather than established lanes, alongside a temporary June memorandum with the U.S. that later broke down amid renewed targeting. Ongoing talks with Oman on shipping coordinates, selective permissions for Iraqi tankers, and U.S. naval oversight of alternative passages continue to shape risks, while low compliance and "dark" vessel movements raise collision and escalation concerns. Scheduled diplomatic or military moves in the coming weeks could alter the frequency of successful targeting events.