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icon for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?
Politics·Cuba

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?

icon for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?
Politics·Cuba

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?

$371,819 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$371,819 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31

$1,180 Vol.

26%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Cuba's economic and energy crisis has prompted President Miguel Díaz-Canel to announce limited reforms in June 2026 aimed at attracting investment, decentralizing administration, and engaging the diaspora, while acknowledging the need for urgent adjustments modeled partly on other socialist economies. U.S. sanctions imposed in June 2026, combined with earlier diplomatic talks and prisoner releases, reflect external pressure on the leadership amid fuel shortages and blackouts. Díaz-Canel's second term, ratified by the National Assembly in 2023, extends through 2028 under constitutional rules, with no reported National Assembly votes, party actions, or resignations altering his position as of late August 2026. Trader sentiment centers on whether sustained external leverage or internal elite dynamics could force an earlier transition before scheduled deadlines.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$371,819
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 7:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Cuba's economic and energy crisis has prompted President Miguel Díaz-Canel to announce limited reforms in June 2026 aimed at attracting investment, decentralizing administration, and engaging the diaspora, while acknowledging the need for urgent adjustments modeled partly on other socialist economies. U.S. sanctions imposed in June 2026, combined with earlier diplomatic talks and prisoner releases, reflect external pressure on the leadership amid fuel shortages and blackouts. Díaz-Canel's second term, ratified by the National Assembly in 2023, extends through 2028 under constitutional rules, with no reported National Assembly votes, party actions, or resignations altering his position as of late August 2026. Trader sentiment centers on whether sustained external leverage or internal elite dynamics could force an earlier transition before scheduled deadlines.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$371,819
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 7:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 26%, followed by "June 30" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?" has generated $371.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?" is "December 31" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.