Google’s ongoing delays with the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship model underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability of no release by August 31. Announced at I/O in May with an initial June target, the model remains in partner testing as of mid-August while lighter variants such as Gemini 3.7 Flash reached general availability on August 13. Google has shifted focus to efficiency-oriented Flash releases and begun training Gemini 4, reflecting typical flagship timeline slippage seen across prior 3.x iterations. Trader consensus aligns with the absence of any confirmed API endpoint, pricing, or official rollout date, though an unexpected late-month announcement or changelog update could still alter positioning before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo release by August 31 93.3%
August 27 2.5%
August 24 1.0%
August 29 1.0%
$301,251 Vol.
$301,251 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
August 23
1%
August 24
1%
August 25
1%
August 26
1%
August 27
2%
August 28
1%
August 29
1%
August 30
1%
August 31
<1%
No release by August 31
93%
No release by August 31 93.3%
August 27 2.5%
August 24 1.0%
August 29 1.0%
$301,251 Vol.
$301,251 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
August 23
$3,423 Vol.
1%
August 24
$5,862 Vol.
1%
August 25
$6,846 Vol.
1%
August 26
$5,006 Vol.
1%
August 27
$9,658 Vol.
2%
August 28
$4,666 Vol.
1%
August 29
$6,668 Vol.
1%
August 30
$3,465 Vol.
1%
August 31
$9,012 Vol.
<1%
No release by August 31
$73,372 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s ongoing delays with the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship model underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability of no release by August 31. Announced at I/O in May with an initial June target, the model remains in partner testing as of mid-August while lighter variants such as Gemini 3.7 Flash reached general availability on August 13. Google has shifted focus to efficiency-oriented Flash releases and begun training Gemini 4, reflecting typical flagship timeline slippage seen across prior 3.x iterations. Trader consensus aligns with the absence of any confirmed API endpoint, pricing, or official rollout date, though an unexpected late-month announcement or changelog update could still alter positioning before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Volume
$301,251End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s ongoing delays with the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship model underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability of no release by August 31. Announced at I/O in May with an initial June target, the model remains in partner testing as of mid-August while lighter variants such as Gemini 3.7 Flash reached general availability on August 13. Google has shifted focus to efficiency-oriented Flash releases and begun training Gemini 4, reflecting typical flagship timeline slippage seen across prior 3.x iterations. Trader consensus aligns with the absence of any confirmed API endpoint, pricing, or official rollout date, though an unexpected late-month announcement or changelog update could still alter positioning before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$301,251End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google’s ongoing delays with the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship model underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability of no release by August 31. Announced at I/O in May with an initial June target, the model remains in partner testing as of mid-August while lighter variants such as Gemini 3.7 Flash reached general availability on August 13. Google has shifted focus to efficiency-oriented Flash releases and begun training Gemini 4, reflecting typical flagship timeline slippage seen across prior 3.x iterations. Trader consensus aligns with the absence of any confirmed API endpoint, pricing, or official rollout date, though an unexpected late-month announcement or changelog update could still alter positioning before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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