Moonshot AI remains the sole developer behind the Kimi K-series, with its rapid release cadence—K2.5 in January 2026 followed by the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 in mid-July—driving trader expectations that the company will deliver the next iteration. K3’s open-weight launch, native multimodality, 1M-token context, and competitive coding/agentic benchmarks against models like Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 have reinforced Moonshot’s position as a frontier open-source lab, even amid reports of high demand straining infrastructure and isolated safety-test bypass findings. US regulatory scrutiny of downstream adoption and broader export controls add uncertainty around scaling, yet no credible signals point to licensing, acquisition, or another lab releasing a Kimi-branded model. Traders are watching for developer conferences, funding updates, or new capability benchmarks that could accelerate or delay the subsequent release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Aug 31, 2026
August 31, 2026
5%
September 15, 2026
54%
September 30, 2026
88%
December 31, 2026
99%
$8,745 Vol.
August 31, 2026
$1,274 Vol.
5%
September 15, 2026
$46 Vol.
54%
September 30, 2026
$5,460 Vol.
88%
December 31, 2026
$1,965 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI remains the sole developer behind the Kimi K-series, with its rapid release cadence—K2.5 in January 2026 followed by the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 in mid-July—driving trader expectations that the company will deliver the next iteration. K3’s open-weight launch, native multimodality, 1M-token context, and competitive coding/agentic benchmarks against models like Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 have reinforced Moonshot’s position as a frontier open-source lab, even amid reports of high demand straining infrastructure and isolated safety-test bypass findings. US regulatory scrutiny of downstream adoption and broader export controls add uncertainty around scaling, yet no credible signals point to licensing, acquisition, or another lab releasing a Kimi-branded model. Traders are watching for developer conferences, funding updates, or new capability benchmarks that could accelerate or delay the subsequent release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
Volume
$8,745End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI remains the sole developer behind the Kimi K-series, with its rapid release cadence—K2.5 in January 2026 followed by the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 in mid-July—driving trader expectations that the company will deliver the next iteration. K3’s open-weight launch, native multimodality, 1M-token context, and competitive coding/agentic benchmarks against models like Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 have reinforced Moonshot’s position as a frontier open-source lab, even amid reports of high demand straining infrastructure and isolated safety-test bypass findings. US regulatory scrutiny of downstream adoption and broader export controls add uncertainty around scaling, yet no credible signals point to licensing, acquisition, or another lab releasing a Kimi-branded model. Traders are watching for developer conferences, funding updates, or new capability benchmarks that could accelerate or delay the subsequent release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,745End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI remains the sole developer behind the Kimi K-series, with its rapid release cadence—K2.5 in January 2026 followed by the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 in mid-July—driving trader expectations that the company will deliver the next iteration. K3’s open-weight launch, native multimodality, 1M-token context, and competitive coding/agentic benchmarks against models like Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 have reinforced Moonshot’s position as a frontier open-source lab, even amid reports of high demand straining infrastructure and isolated safety-test bypass findings. US regulatory scrutiny of downstream adoption and broader export controls add uncertainty around scaling, yet no credible signals point to licensing, acquisition, or another lab releasing a Kimi-branded model. Traders are watching for developer conferences, funding updates, or new capability benchmarks that could accelerate or delay the subsequent release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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