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icon for Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?
Tech·AI

Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?

icon for Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?
Tech·AI

Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?

September 22 57%

September 8 46%

September 15 46%

September 7 45%

Polymarket
NEW

September 22 57%

September 8 46%

September 15 46%

September 7 45%

Polymarket
NEW

On or prior to August 25

$5 Vol.

1%

August 26

$46 Vol.

21%

August 27

$46 Vol.

20%

August 28

$46 Vol.

23%

August 29

$496 Vol.

1%

August 30

$496 Vol.

1%

August 31

$31 Vol.

24%

September 1

$46 Vol.

22%

September 2

$136 Vol.

20%

September 3

$136 Vol.

6%

September 4

$136 Vol.

18%

September 5

$236 Vol.

1%

September 6

$236 Vol.

1%

September 7

$136 Vol.

45%

September 8

$136 Vol.

46%

September 9

$136 Vol.

45%

September 10

$136 Vol.

29%

September 11

$46 Vol.

16%

September 12

$136 Vol.

1%

September 13

$136 Vol.

4%

September 14

$136 Vol.

20%

September 15

$136 Vol.

46%

September 16

$136 Vol.

4%

September 17

$136 Vol.

4%

September 18

$156 Vol.

15%

September 19

$417 Vol.

4%

September 20

$457 Vol.

3%

September 21

$136 Vol.

6%

September 22

$136 Vol.

57%

September 23

$136 Vol.

4%

September 24

$136 Vol.

12%

September 25

$136 Vol.

9%

September 26

$136 Vol.

18%

September 27

$462 Vol.

5%

September 28

$136 Vol.

5%

September 29

$136 Vol.

21%

September 30

$136 Vol.

4%

No release by September 30

$444 Vol.

25%

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the next Anthropic Mythos-class model—likely succeeding the June 2026 Claude Mythos 5 and Fable 5 releases—as hinging on internal development momentum versus compute and safety constraints. August 17 leaks highlighted a “Model 2” variant showing roughly 12.5% gains on benchmarks like Cobbench v2 for complex reasoning and agentic tasks, yet flagged infrastructure bottlenecks that could slip timelines. This uncertainty spreads probability across early-to-mid September dates while keeping a notable share on no release by September 30. Anthropic’s history of phased, government-influenced rollouts for cyber-capable models, combined with ongoing competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google, reinforces trader caution around exact availability windows.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public.

Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,659
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 7:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the next Anthropic Mythos-class model—likely succeeding the June 2026 Claude Mythos 5 and Fable 5 releases—as hinging on internal development momentum versus compute and safety constraints. August 17 leaks highlighted a “Model 2” variant showing roughly 12.5% gains on benchmarks like Cobbench v2 for complex reasoning and agentic tasks, yet flagged infrastructure bottlenecks that could slip timelines. This uncertainty spreads probability across early-to-mid September dates while keeping a notable share on no release by September 30. Anthropic’s history of phased, government-influenced rollouts for cyber-capable models, combined with ongoing competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google, reinforces trader caution around exact availability windows.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public.

Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,659
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 7:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 38 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "September 10" at 29%, followed by "September 22" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 29¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 29% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?," browse the 38 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?" is "September 10" at 29%, meaning the market assigns a 29% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 22" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.