Anthropic holds a dominant 92% market-implied probability on LiveBench Coding at end of August because its latest Claude models, including Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants, have posted the strongest verified scores on the benchmark’s contamination-resistant coding tasks in recent public snapshots. These models outperform OpenAI’s GPT-5.x series and Google’s Gemini 3.x lines on objective code generation and completion subsets, consistent with their established edge in related agentic coding evaluations such as SWE-bench Verified. With resolution just days away and no scheduled major model releases or LiveBench refreshes before month-end, traders see limited scope for reversal. A surprise high-scoring update from OpenAI or a new leaderboard drop shifting category leadership could still narrow the gap, though current verified results leave little room for such movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 92%
OpenAI 7.4%
Google 2.7%
SpaceXAI 1.4%
$42,434 Vol.
$42,434 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
92%
OpenAI
7%
3%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta
<1%
Anthropic 92%
OpenAI 7.4%
Google 2.7%
SpaceXAI 1.4%
$42,434 Vol.
$42,434 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$17,848 Vol.
92%
OpenAI
$5,722 Vol.
7%
$2,667 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$2,313 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$2,794 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$466 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,760 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$471 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$818 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$672 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$421 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$589 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$441 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,196 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$656 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,212 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$366 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$465 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$372 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$581 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$604 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds a dominant 92% market-implied probability on LiveBench Coding at end of August because its latest Claude models, including Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants, have posted the strongest verified scores on the benchmark’s contamination-resistant coding tasks in recent public snapshots. These models outperform OpenAI’s GPT-5.x series and Google’s Gemini 3.x lines on objective code generation and completion subsets, consistent with their established edge in related agentic coding evaluations such as SWE-bench Verified. With resolution just days away and no scheduled major model releases or LiveBench refreshes before month-end, traders see limited scope for reversal. A surprise high-scoring update from OpenAI or a new leaderboard drop shifting category leadership could still narrow the gap, though current verified results leave little room for such movement.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Volume
$42,434End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=CodingResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds a dominant 92% market-implied probability on LiveBench Coding at end of August because its latest Claude models, including Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants, have posted the strongest verified scores on the benchmark’s contamination-resistant coding tasks in recent public snapshots. These models outperform OpenAI’s GPT-5.x series and Google’s Gemini 3.x lines on objective code generation and completion subsets, consistent with their established edge in related agentic coding evaluations such as SWE-bench Verified. With resolution just days away and no scheduled major model releases or LiveBench refreshes before month-end, traders see limited scope for reversal. A surprise high-scoring update from OpenAI or a new leaderboard drop shifting category leadership could still narrow the gap, though current verified results leave little room for such movement.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$42,434End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=CodingResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a dominant 92% market-implied probability on LiveBench Coding at end of August because its latest Claude models, including Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants, have posted the strongest verified scores on the benchmark’s contamination-resistant coding tasks in recent public snapshots. These models outperform OpenAI’s GPT-5.x series and Google’s Gemini 3.x lines on objective code generation and completion subsets, consistent with their established edge in related agentic coding evaluations such as SWE-bench Verified. With resolution just days away and no scheduled major model releases or LiveBench refreshes before month-end, traders see limited scope for reversal. A surprise high-scoring update from OpenAI or a new leaderboard drop shifting category leadership could still narrow the gap, though current verified results leave little room for such movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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