Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 69.5% implied probability thanks to Claude models’ sustained edge on LiveBench Coding tasks, where strong performance in complex reasoning, tool use, and multi-step problem solving has set the benchmark standard. OpenAI trails at 26.5% amid ongoing competition from its GPT and o-series releases, while the broad field of other labs sits near 50% or lower, reflecting fragmented results and fewer confirmed coding-specific gains. Recent verified model updates and benchmark submissions have reinforced this gap, though new frontier releases or capability jumps before end of October remain key swing factors that could shift consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 70%
OpenAI 27%
Z.ai 1.7%
Mistral 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
70%
OpenAI
27%
Z.ai
2%
Mistral
2%
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
1%
Amazon
1%
Nvidia
1%
Thinky
1%
MiniMax
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
StepFun
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 70%
OpenAI 27%
Z.ai 1.7%
Mistral 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$4,192 Vol.
70%
OpenAI
$600 Vol.
27%
Z.ai
$210 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$165 Vol.
2%
$138 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$113 Vol.
1%
Meta
$161 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$174 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$179 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$179 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$164 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$144 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$182 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$113 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$135 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$207 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$138 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$146 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$133 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$133 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$153 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 69.5% implied probability thanks to Claude models’ sustained edge on LiveBench Coding tasks, where strong performance in complex reasoning, tool use, and multi-step problem solving has set the benchmark standard. OpenAI trails at 26.5% amid ongoing competition from its GPT and o-series releases, while the broad field of other labs sits near 50% or lower, reflecting fragmented results and fewer confirmed coding-specific gains. Recent verified model updates and benchmark submissions have reinforced this gap, though new frontier releases or capability jumps before end of October remain key swing factors that could shift consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$7,752End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 69.5% implied probability thanks to Claude models’ sustained edge on LiveBench Coding tasks, where strong performance in complex reasoning, tool use, and multi-step problem solving has set the benchmark standard. OpenAI trails at 26.5% amid ongoing competition from its GPT and o-series releases, while the broad field of other labs sits near 50% or lower, reflecting fragmented results and fewer confirmed coding-specific gains. Recent verified model updates and benchmark submissions have reinforced this gap, though new frontier releases or capability jumps before end of October remain key swing factors that could shift consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$7,752End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 69.5% implied probability thanks to Claude models’ sustained edge on LiveBench Coding tasks, where strong performance in complex reasoning, tool use, and multi-step problem solving has set the benchmark standard. OpenAI trails at 26.5% amid ongoing competition from its GPT and o-series releases, while the broad field of other labs sits near 50% or lower, reflecting fragmented results and fewer confirmed coding-specific gains. Recent verified model updates and benchmark submissions have reinforced this gap, though new frontier releases or capability jumps before end of October remain key swing factors that could shift consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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