Anthropic leads trader sentiment on the LiveBench overall leaderboard through end of October, driven by Claude Fable 5's top score of 83.0% in the June 2026 release, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants by roughly two points across objective tasks in math, coding, and reasoning. This positioning reflects Anthropic's recent emphasis on long-context handling and safety-aligned training in its frontier large language models, sustaining an edge on contamination-resistant benchmarks with monthly question refreshes. OpenAI trails at lower implied odds amid its own scaling updates, while other labs like Google and xAI register minimal probabilities given narrower gaps and fewer demonstrated gains. Key catalysts ahead include potential new model drops or benchmark iterations before resolution, underscoring how live evaluations can shift quickly with capability jumps in the competitive AI landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 62%
OpenAI 33%
Alibaba <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$10,923 Vol.
$10,923 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
62%
OpenAI
33%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Amazon
1%
Meta
1%
1%
Baidu
1%
Tencent
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 62%
OpenAI 33%
Alibaba <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$10,923 Vol.
$10,923 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$5,770 Vol.
62%
OpenAI
$1,121 Vol.
33%
Alibaba
$133 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$182 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$240 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$222 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$245 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$229 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$250 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$182 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$192 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$192 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$261 Vol.
1%
Meta
$229 Vol.
1%
$158 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$241 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$240 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$180 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$190 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$212 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$255 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads trader sentiment on the LiveBench overall leaderboard through end of October, driven by Claude Fable 5's top score of 83.0% in the June 2026 release, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants by roughly two points across objective tasks in math, coding, and reasoning. This positioning reflects Anthropic's recent emphasis on long-context handling and safety-aligned training in its frontier large language models, sustaining an edge on contamination-resistant benchmarks with monthly question refreshes. OpenAI trails at lower implied odds amid its own scaling updates, while other labs like Google and xAI register minimal probabilities given narrower gaps and fewer demonstrated gains. Key catalysts ahead include potential new model drops or benchmark iterations before resolution, underscoring how live evaluations can shift quickly with capability jumps in the competitive AI landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$10,923End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads trader sentiment on the LiveBench overall leaderboard through end of October, driven by Claude Fable 5's top score of 83.0% in the June 2026 release, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants by roughly two points across objective tasks in math, coding, and reasoning. This positioning reflects Anthropic's recent emphasis on long-context handling and safety-aligned training in its frontier large language models, sustaining an edge on contamination-resistant benchmarks with monthly question refreshes. OpenAI trails at lower implied odds amid its own scaling updates, while other labs like Google and xAI register minimal probabilities given narrower gaps and fewer demonstrated gains. Key catalysts ahead include potential new model drops or benchmark iterations before resolution, underscoring how live evaluations can shift quickly with capability jumps in the competitive AI landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$10,923End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads trader sentiment on the LiveBench overall leaderboard through end of October, driven by Claude Fable 5's top score of 83.0% in the June 2026 release, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants by roughly two points across objective tasks in math, coding, and reasoning. This positioning reflects Anthropic's recent emphasis on long-context handling and safety-aligned training in its frontier large language models, sustaining an edge on contamination-resistant benchmarks with monthly question refreshes. OpenAI trails at lower implied odds amid its own scaling updates, while other labs like Google and xAI register minimal probabilities given narrower gaps and fewer demonstrated gains. Key catalysts ahead include potential new model drops or benchmark iterations before resolution, underscoring how live evaluations can shift quickly with capability jumps in the competitive AI landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions