Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 68.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5 model currently tops LiveBench overall at 83.0, with standout results in reasoning, coding, mathematics, and language categories that outpace OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants at 80-81%. Recent June 2026 releases and iterative improvements have solidified Anthropic's edge on this contamination-free benchmark ahead of the September close. OpenAI sits at 29.5% as its models remain competitive but trail slightly, while Google, Meta, and others register below 1% amid limited recent benchmark gains. Traders are watching for any late-August or September model updates that could shift the narrow gap before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 69%
OpenAI 30%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
$34,367 Vol.
$34,367 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
69%
OpenAI
30%
1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 69%
OpenAI 30%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
$34,367 Vol.
$34,367 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$9,441 Vol.
69%
OpenAI
$7,992 Vol.
30%
$1,445 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$1,268 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,507 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,300 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$741 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$929 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$597 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$558 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$901 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$612 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$686 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$543 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$790 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$648 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,208 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,020 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$663 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$488 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,031 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 68.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5 model currently tops LiveBench overall at 83.0, with standout results in reasoning, coding, mathematics, and language categories that outpace OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants at 80-81%. Recent June 2026 releases and iterative improvements have solidified Anthropic's edge on this contamination-free benchmark ahead of the September close. OpenAI sits at 29.5% as its models remain competitive but trail slightly, while Google, Meta, and others register below 1% amid limited recent benchmark gains. Traders are watching for any late-August or September model updates that could shift the narrow gap before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$34,367End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 68.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5 model currently tops LiveBench overall at 83.0, with standout results in reasoning, coding, mathematics, and language categories that outpace OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants at 80-81%. Recent June 2026 releases and iterative improvements have solidified Anthropic's edge on this contamination-free benchmark ahead of the September close. OpenAI sits at 29.5% as its models remain competitive but trail slightly, while Google, Meta, and others register below 1% amid limited recent benchmark gains. Traders are watching for any late-August or September model updates that could shift the narrow gap before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$34,367End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 68.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5 model currently tops LiveBench overall at 83.0, with standout results in reasoning, coding, mathematics, and language categories that outpace OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants at 80-81%. Recent June 2026 releases and iterative improvements have solidified Anthropic's edge on this contamination-free benchmark ahead of the September close. OpenAI sits at 29.5% as its models remain competitive but trail slightly, while Google, Meta, and others register below 1% amid limited recent benchmark gains. Traders are watching for any late-August or September model updates that could shift the narrow gap before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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