**Trader consensus on the "Which company does Ox Alpha belong to?" market has consolidated around Z.ai at 87.5% implied probability.** Multiple independent technical probes released in the past 72 hours—95-of-95 tokenizer vocabulary matches, identical API error strings and Java stack traces, plus video-token accounting—align precisely with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family infrastructure, consistent with the lab’s prior anonymous OpenRouter previews such as Pony Alpha. The 1M-context reasoning model surfaced August 20 on OpenRouter as a free stealth release optimized for coding agents, driving rapid adoption before any lab claimed ownership. No official announcement has emerged as of August 24, leaving resolution dependent on future confirmation or contradictory evidence. Other listed outcomes remain at or below 50% amid the absence of comparable forensic signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedZ.ai 87%
Thinky 8%
Meituan 8%
Nvidia 6.0%
NEW
$12,175 Vol.
NEW
$12,175 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Z.ai
87%
Thinky
8%
Meituan
8%
Nvidia
6%
Microsoft
6%
Safe Superintelligence
6%
3%
Xiaomi
3%
ByteDance
1%
Tencent
1%
Meta
1%
Baidu
1%
MiniMax
1%
Alibaba
1%
xAI
1%
Moonshot AI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
Amazon
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Cursor
<1%
Z.ai 87%
Thinky 8%
Meituan 8%
Nvidia 6.0%
NEW
$12,175 Vol.
NEW
$12,175 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Z.ai
$2,614 Vol.
87%
Thinky
$251 Vol.
8%
Meituan
$238 Vol.
8%
Nvidia
$246 Vol.
6%
Microsoft
$108 Vol.
6%
Safe Superintelligence
$708 Vol.
6%
$708 Vol.
3%
Xiaomi
$590 Vol.
3%
ByteDance
$535 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$515 Vol.
1%
Meta
$251 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$251 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$513 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$548 Vol.
1%
xAI
$651 Vol.
1%
Moonshot AI
$335 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$393 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$523 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$540 Vol.
<1%
Anthropic
$403 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$413 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$386 Vol.
<1%
Cursor
$454 Vol.
<1%
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on the "Which company does Ox Alpha belong to?" market has consolidated around Z.ai at 87.5% implied probability.** Multiple independent technical probes released in the past 72 hours—95-of-95 tokenizer vocabulary matches, identical API error strings and Java stack traces, plus video-token accounting—align precisely with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family infrastructure, consistent with the lab’s prior anonymous OpenRouter previews such as Pony Alpha. The 1M-context reasoning model surfaced August 20 on OpenRouter as a free stealth release optimized for coding agents, driving rapid adoption before any lab claimed ownership. No official announcement has emerged as of August 24, leaving resolution dependent on future confirmation or contradictory evidence. Other listed outcomes remain at or below 50% amid the absence of comparable forensic signals.
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ET
Volume
$12,175End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on the "Which company does Ox Alpha belong to?" market has consolidated around Z.ai at 87.5% implied probability.** Multiple independent technical probes released in the past 72 hours—95-of-95 tokenizer vocabulary matches, identical API error strings and Java stack traces, plus video-token accounting—align precisely with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family infrastructure, consistent with the lab’s prior anonymous OpenRouter previews such as Pony Alpha. The 1M-context reasoning model surfaced August 20 on OpenRouter as a free stealth release optimized for coding agents, driving rapid adoption before any lab claimed ownership. No official announcement has emerged as of August 24, leaving resolution dependent on future confirmation or contradictory evidence. Other listed outcomes remain at or below 50% amid the absence of comparable forensic signals.
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$12,175End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the "Which company does Ox Alpha belong to?" market has consolidated around Z.ai at 87.5% implied probability.** Multiple independent technical probes released in the past 72 hours—95-of-95 tokenizer vocabulary matches, identical API error strings and Java stack traces, plus video-token accounting—align precisely with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family infrastructure, consistent with the lab’s prior anonymous OpenRouter previews such as Pony Alpha. The 1M-context reasoning model surfaced August 20 on OpenRouter as a free stealth release optimized for coding agents, driving rapid adoption before any lab claimed ownership. No official announcement has emerged as of August 24, leaving resolution dependent on future confirmation or contradictory evidence. Other listed outcomes remain at or below 50% amid the absence of comparable forensic signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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