Trader consensus around a 98.8% probability for "Nothing" in the August market reflects the absence of major escalations or unexpected global shocks through late August 2026. Ongoing conflicts, including the Iran war and Gaza hostilities, have remained contained amid ceasefire talks and limited strikes, while earlier events such as magnitude 7+ earthquakes and the August 12 solar eclipse did not shift the resolution criteria. Scheduled developments like the Perseid meteor shower and a partial lunar eclipse have unfolded without broader disruption. High odds align with the wisdom of crowds pricing in stable diplomatic channels and no imminent legislative or electoral catalysts. Realistic factors that could still alter the outcome include sudden military actions, leadership announcements, or large-scale natural disasters in the final week of the month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNothing Ever Happens: August
Nothing Ever Happens: August
Nothing
99% chance
$25,863 Vol.
$25,863 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Nothing
99% chance
$25,863 Vol.
$25,863 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdfTrader consensus around a 98.8% probability for "Nothing" in the August market reflects the absence of major escalations or unexpected global shocks through late August 2026. Ongoing conflicts, including the Iran war and Gaza hostilities, have remained contained amid ceasefire talks and limited strikes, while earlier events such as magnitude 7+ earthquakes and the August 12 solar eclipse did not shift the resolution criteria. Scheduled developments like the Perseid meteor shower and a partial lunar eclipse have unfolded without broader disruption. High odds align with the wisdom of crowds pricing in stable diplomatic channels and no imminent legislative or electoral catalysts. Realistic factors that could still alter the outcome include sudden military actions, leadership announcements, or large-scale natural disasters in the final week of the month.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdf
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdf
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 6:33 PM ET
Volume
$25,863End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdfTrader consensus around a 98.8% probability for "Nothing" in the August market reflects the absence of major escalations or unexpected global shocks through late August 2026. Ongoing conflicts, including the Iran war and Gaza hostilities, have remained contained amid ceasefire talks and limited strikes, while earlier events such as magnitude 7+ earthquakes and the August 12 solar eclipse did not shift the resolution criteria. Scheduled developments like the Perseid meteor shower and a partial lunar eclipse have unfolded without broader disruption. High odds align with the wisdom of crowds pricing in stable diplomatic channels and no imminent legislative or electoral catalysts. Realistic factors that could still alter the outcome include sudden military actions, leadership announcements, or large-scale natural disasters in the final week of the month.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdf
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdf
Volume
$25,863End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus around a 98.8% probability for "Nothing" in the August market reflects the absence of major escalations or unexpected global shocks through late August 2026. Ongoing conflicts, including the Iran war and Gaza hostilities, have remained contained amid ceasefire talks and limited strikes, while earlier events such as magnitude 7+ earthquakes and the August 12 solar eclipse did not shift the resolution criteria. Scheduled developments like the Perseid meteor shower and a partial lunar eclipse have unfolded without broader disruption. High odds align with the wisdom of crowds pricing in stable diplomatic channels and no imminent legislative or electoral catalysts. Realistic factors that could still alter the outcome include sudden military actions, leadership announcements, or large-scale natural disasters in the final week of the month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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