OpenAI’s Astra, positioned as the company’s next major frontier large language model family with strong agentic capabilities, has not received a public release date or general availability following its low-key August 1, 2026 announcement. The dominant recent catalyst is the August 7 disclosure that internal evaluations showed significant advancements in agentic coding and cybersecurity, preventing OpenAI from ruling out a “Critical” threshold under its Preparedness Framework—the first such designation for any model. This triggered stricter security controls, isolated testing environments, expanded monitoring, pauses on non-compliant internal work, and planned reviews by government agencies and safety organizations, directly contributing to the current market-implied odds favoring a release by late October while assigning lower probability to mid-September windows. Traders appear to view the delay as procedural rather than indefinite, consistent with OpenAI’s stated intent to deploy the model broadly once safeguards are met, alongside competitive pressure from other labs and potential integration signals such as future Codex enhancements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$319,693 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
August 31
2%
September 15
41%
September 30
78%
October 31
91%
$319,693 Vol.
August 31
$117,615 Vol.
2%
September 15
$47,711 Vol.
41%
September 30
$52,588 Vol.
78%
October 31
$32,190 Vol.
91%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s Astra, positioned as the company’s next major frontier large language model family with strong agentic capabilities, has not received a public release date or general availability following its low-key August 1, 2026 announcement. The dominant recent catalyst is the August 7 disclosure that internal evaluations showed significant advancements in agentic coding and cybersecurity, preventing OpenAI from ruling out a “Critical” threshold under its Preparedness Framework—the first such designation for any model. This triggered stricter security controls, isolated testing environments, expanded monitoring, pauses on non-compliant internal work, and planned reviews by government agencies and safety organizations, directly contributing to the current market-implied odds favoring a release by late October while assigning lower probability to mid-September windows. Traders appear to view the delay as procedural rather than indefinite, consistent with OpenAI’s stated intent to deploy the model broadly once safeguards are met, alongside competitive pressure from other labs and potential integration signals such as future Codex enhancements.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$319,693End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s Astra, positioned as the company’s next major frontier large language model family with strong agentic capabilities, has not received a public release date or general availability following its low-key August 1, 2026 announcement. The dominant recent catalyst is the August 7 disclosure that internal evaluations showed significant advancements in agentic coding and cybersecurity, preventing OpenAI from ruling out a “Critical” threshold under its Preparedness Framework—the first such designation for any model. This triggered stricter security controls, isolated testing environments, expanded monitoring, pauses on non-compliant internal work, and planned reviews by government agencies and safety organizations, directly contributing to the current market-implied odds favoring a release by late October while assigning lower probability to mid-September windows. Traders appear to view the delay as procedural rather than indefinite, consistent with OpenAI’s stated intent to deploy the model broadly once safeguards are met, alongside competitive pressure from other labs and potential integration signals such as future Codex enhancements.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$319,693End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s Astra, positioned as the company’s next major frontier large language model family with strong agentic capabilities, has not received a public release date or general availability following its low-key August 1, 2026 announcement. The dominant recent catalyst is the August 7 disclosure that internal evaluations showed significant advancements in agentic coding and cybersecurity, preventing OpenAI from ruling out a “Critical” threshold under its Preparedness Framework—the first such designation for any model. This triggered stricter security controls, isolated testing environments, expanded monitoring, pauses on non-compliant internal work, and planned reviews by government agencies and safety organizations, directly contributing to the current market-implied odds favoring a release by late October while assigning lower probability to mid-September windows. Traders appear to view the delay as procedural rather than indefinite, consistent with OpenAI’s stated intent to deploy the model broadly once safeguards are met, alongside competitive pressure from other labs and potential integration signals such as future Codex enhancements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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