**RFK Jr. remains U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services with strong trader consensus that he will continue in the role through October 31, 2026.** As of early September 2026, he continues to lead HHS initiatives on workforce restructuring, chronic disease priorities under the Make America Healthy Again agenda, and budget implementation, including recent Senate testimony on fiscal year 2026 appropriations and agency reductions. Key developments reinforcing stability include ongoing White House coordination on policy execution, leadership reorganizations within HHS to streamline operations, and sustained presidential alignment despite external criticism from some healthcare organizations and congressional oversight hearings. Reports of internal adjustments, messaging discipline ahead of midterms, and judicial or legislative pushback on specific vaccine-related actions have not altered his position or prompted removal signals. Traders price the low probability of departure (around 6% for “Yes”) on the absence of resignation announcements, confirmation disputes, or administration moves that would trigger an exit before the deadline. Historical patterns of cabinet continuity in the second Trump term and the secretary’s focus on core executive priorities further support this implied probability. Any late-breaking development, such as a major policy rupture or health-related event, could shift odds, but none has materialized in the current window.