Recent US-Venezuela oil agreements granting American entities stakes in fields holding 65 billion barrels of reserves, coupled with President Trump’s late-August statements that Venezuelan crude will help “top off” the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, represent the key driver of market-implied odds. The SPR stood at 286.6 million barrels (40.1% of 714 million barrel capacity) as of September 2, 2026, following repeated drawdowns amid geopolitical supply shocks. However, Venezuelan extra-heavy, high-sulfur crude faces technical incompatibility with SPR cavern specifications, prompting Energy Department clarification that no such refill is planned at present. Significant infrastructure investment and production ramp-up timelines further constrain near-term flows, while potential grade swaps or indirect purchases remain longer-term variables. Traders will monitor upcoming EIA inventory reports and any FERC or DOE policy updates on crude specifications for shifts in consensus probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
19%
December 31
38%
$0.00 Vol.
September 30
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December 31
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38%
On August 28, 2026, the United States and Venezuela announced an oil deal granting the United States access to Venezuela's crude oil reserves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any amount of Venezuelan oil acquired under this agreement is deposited into the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying deposit must be confirmed to have been received at a US SPR storage facility and to have been sourced from Venezuela under the referenced agreement or a successor US-Venezuela oil deal. Announcements of plans or intentions to deposit Venezuelan oil into the SPR will not qualify.
The deposit must be confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-Venezuela oil agreements granting American entities stakes in fields holding 65 billion barrels of reserves, coupled with President Trump’s late-August statements that Venezuelan crude will help “top off” the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, represent the key driver of market-implied odds. The SPR stood at 286.6 million barrels (40.1% of 714 million barrel capacity) as of September 2, 2026, following repeated drawdowns amid geopolitical supply shocks. However, Venezuelan extra-heavy, high-sulfur crude faces technical incompatibility with SPR cavern specifications, prompting Energy Department clarification that no such refill is planned at present. Significant infrastructure investment and production ramp-up timelines further constrain near-term flows, while potential grade swaps or indirect purchases remain longer-term variables. Traders will monitor upcoming EIA inventory reports and any FERC or DOE policy updates on crude specifications for shifts in consensus probabilities.
On August 28, 2026, the United States and Venezuela announced an oil deal granting the United States access to Venezuela's crude oil reserves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any amount of Venezuelan oil acquired under this agreement is deposited into the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying deposit must be confirmed to have been received at a US SPR storage facility and to have been sourced from Venezuela under the referenced agreement or a successor US-Venezuela oil deal. Announcements of plans or intentions to deposit Venezuelan oil into the SPR will not qualify.
The deposit must be confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any amount of Venezuelan oil acquired under this agreement is deposited into the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying deposit must be confirmed to have been received at a US SPR storage facility and to have been sourced from Venezuela under the referenced agreement or a successor US-Venezuela oil deal. Announcements of plans or intentions to deposit Venezuelan oil into the SPR will not qualify.
The deposit must be confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On August 28, 2026, the United States and Venezuela announced an oil deal granting the United States access to Venezuela's crude oil reserves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any amount of Venezuelan oil acquired under this agreement is deposited into the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying deposit must be confirmed to have been received at a US SPR storage facility and to have been sourced from Venezuela under the referenced agreement or a successor US-Venezuela oil deal. Announcements of plans or intentions to deposit Venezuelan oil into the SPR will not qualify.
The deposit must be confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-Venezuela oil agreements granting American entities stakes in fields holding 65 billion barrels of reserves, coupled with President Trump’s late-August statements that Venezuelan crude will help “top off” the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, represent the key driver of market-implied odds. The SPR stood at 286.6 million barrels (40.1% of 714 million barrel capacity) as of September 2, 2026, following repeated drawdowns amid geopolitical supply shocks. However, Venezuelan extra-heavy, high-sulfur crude faces technical incompatibility with SPR cavern specifications, prompting Energy Department clarification that no such refill is planned at present. Significant infrastructure investment and production ramp-up timelines further constrain near-term flows, while potential grade swaps or indirect purchases remain longer-term variables. Traders will monitor upcoming EIA inventory reports and any FERC or DOE policy updates on crude specifications for shifts in consensus probabilities.
On August 28, 2026, the United States and Venezuela announced an oil deal granting the United States access to Venezuela's crude oil reserves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any amount of Venezuelan oil acquired under this agreement is deposited into the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying deposit must be confirmed to have been received at a US SPR storage facility and to have been sourced from Venezuela under the referenced agreement or a successor US-Venezuela oil deal. Announcements of plans or intentions to deposit Venezuelan oil into the SPR will not qualify.
The deposit must be confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any amount of Venezuelan oil acquired under this agreement is deposited into the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying deposit must be confirmed to have been received at a US SPR storage facility and to have been sourced from Venezuela under the referenced agreement or a successor US-Venezuela oil deal. Announcements of plans or intentions to deposit Venezuelan oil into the SPR will not qualify.
The deposit must be confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Venezuela oil agreements granting American entities stakes in fields holding 65 billion barrels of reserves, coupled with President Trump’s late-August statements that Venezuelan crude will help “top off” the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, represent the key driver of market-implied odds. The SPR stood at 286.6 million barrels (40.1% of 714 million barrel capacity) as of September 2, 2026, following repeated drawdowns amid geopolitical supply shocks. However, Venezuelan extra-heavy, high-sulfur crude faces technical incompatibility with SPR cavern specifications, prompting Energy Department clarification that no such refill is planned at present. Significant infrastructure investment and production ramp-up timelines further constrain near-term flows, while potential grade swaps or indirect purchases remain longer-term variables. Traders will monitor upcoming EIA inventory reports and any FERC or DOE policy updates on crude specifications for shifts in consensus probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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